Energy analysts have continued to express divided opinions over President Bola Tinubu’s new oil and gas revenue Executive Order (EO).

While some see it as a major fiscal reform to boost transparency, strengthen NNPC’s commercial function, curb discretionary revenue retention, and strengthen government finances, others perceive the executive order as a setback to the oil and gas industry’s growth and a direct attack on the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

Speaking, former Chairman, Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), Adetunji Oyebanji, said the essence of the executive order was to boost government’s revenue.

“Our borrowing level is very high now and therefore, in order to boost revenue, government has to track any possible leakage or any possible depletion in revenue. So, to that extent, I think it will help. That is the objective,” he said

On the 30 per cent retention fee by NNPCL, he expressed concern about that, saying he hoped that it would not prevent the company from necessary obligations to its contractors, staff and retirees.

“I hope the Federal government has thought it through so that NNPC does not become handicapped in terms of awarding contract for anything or repairs of something, because the company must have some working capital to do its own business.

“In these kinds of circumstances, the only thing is that government has to be sure that NNPC’s operation is not hampered so that they can pay retirees and do other things,” he said

The MEMAN’s ex-chairman urged government to leave enough money for the company to run its business efficiently.

Professor of petroleum economics and policy research, Professor Wumi Iledare, in a report, described the executive order as a significant fiscal intervention aimed at enhancing transparency, reducing discretionary retention, and improving statutory remittances to Nigeria’s three tiers of government.

President of Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), Comrade Festus Osifo, maintained that the oil revenue executive order will create uncertainties in oil and gas sector, described the President‘s executive order as a direct attack on the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), pointing out that such an order cannot supersede the law of the land.

According to him, an executive order cannot override the provision of a law.

Besides, he said the executive order is going to impact negatively on the economy, cause challenges and industrial issues in the sector, set the industry backward, cause investors to lack confidence in Nigeria, and trigger redundancy of workers.

Recall that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signed Executive Order No. 9 of 2026 on February 13, 2026, directing that all oil and gas revenues due to the Federation, including royalty oil, tax oil, profit oil, and profit gas, be paid directly into the Federation Account.

The executive order also suspended certain revenue retention mechanisms provided under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, including: the 30 per cent Frontier Exploration Fund, the 30 per cent NNPCL management fee on profit oil and profit gas and the redirection of gas flare penalties into the federation account

According to an energy expert and lecturer at Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Port Harcourt, River State, Dr. Joseph Obele, while the executive order aims to enhance fiscal transparency and safeguard national revenue, he said that the sustainable reform of the oil and gas sector would require alignment with statutory law, institutional stability, and investor confidence.

He pointed out that constructive dialogue between the executive, the National Assembly, industry stakeholders, and labour unions is also essential to reconcile areas of controversy and also to strengthen Nigeria’s economic foundation.

He said the executive order appeared to contradict certain provisions of the PIA, particularly Sections 8, 9, and 64, thereby creating potential legal and regulatory concerns.

On the positive implications, Odele said it would promote transparency in the system, improve fiscal planning, reduce revenue leakages, strengthen NNPCL commercial mandate, and encourage NNPCL to prioritise the operational revival of government-owned refineries.

He said that centralising oil and gas revenues into the federation account would definitely increase allocations to federal, state, and local governments, thereby strengthening public finance.

According to him, direct remittance would reduce off-budget deductions and enhance public oversight of petroleum revenues.

“The Order may compel NNPCL to operate strictly as a commercial entity, focusing on profitability and cost efficiency, rather than relying on retained government funds.

“The directive may encourage NNPCL to prioritise the operational revival of government-owned refineries, as revenue generation will become critical for meeting salary and operational obligation,” Odele said.

On the negative implications, Odele said it would create uncertainty within Nigeria’s petroleum regulatory framework, potentially affecting investor confidence, if perceived as overriding Sections 8, 9, and 64 of the PIA 2021.

He added that it may have possible impact on investment and employment, explaining that changes to established fiscal structures may weaken NNPCL’s operational flexibility and discourage long-term capital investment, with possible implications for jobs and sector growth.

“Potential Job Losses – NNPCL and its subsidiaries may experience workforce reductions as part of cost-cutting measures,” he said

According to him, if the executive order is perceived as overriding Sections 8, 9, and 64 of the PIA 2021, he said the perceived instability in the regulatory environment may discourage foreign investors from committing long-term capital to Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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