President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has offered a glimpse of what could form the core of his 2026 campaign manifesto, pledging to catapult Uganda’s economy into unprecedented territory.

 

As he heads into his seventh presidential bid under the 1995 Constitution, Museveni has set his sights on transforming Uganda into a $500 billion economy in the next 15 years, an ambitious goal that would represent more than an eightfold increase from current levels.

Speaking at the NRM National Delegates Conference at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds, Kampala, where he was overwhelmingly endorsed as the party’s flag-bearer by the party’s 20,000 leaders pooled from across the country, the President expressed gratitude for the continued trust in his leadership and promised not just continuity, but transformation.“I thank you for electing me as your flag-bearer for the presidential contest of 2026–2031. I will not let you down,” he told delegates.

The veteran leader will be competing against other candidates from the various parties for the country’s top job in the elections scheduled for January 12, 2026, but campaigns will begin mid-October.

More than 200 aspirants have expressed interest and picked nomination forms to challenge Museveni, who has been president of the country for about 40 years.

Uganda’s economy has seen moderate but consistent growth over the last decade, recording GDP growth rate of 5.5 percent, which dropped to -0.5 percent in 2020, blamed on the Covid-19 pandemic.

Museveni’s $500 billion GDP target is seen as a great promise, but how it can be achieved remains the question. Over the years, the President has employed various vehicles for economic transformation, especially at the start of every electioneering cycle, but the impact largely remains minimal.

Prof Stefan Dercon from the University of Oxford's Centre for the Study of African Economies, who is in Kampala on a visit, has warned that while resource-rich, African nations such as Uganda often fail to translate natural wealth into broad-based growth.“Natural resources help with budget stability and services, but their aggregate impact on long-term growth is often limited,” Prof Dercon noted.

But the Ugandan leader remains optimistic, citing key upcoming developments such as commercial oil production set to begin in late 2026, which is expected to generate billions of dollars in annual revenues and spur downstream investment in infrastructure and petrochemicals.

Museveni’s vision has come in phases: Recovery from political and economic collapse (1986–2000); expansion through macroeconomic stability (2000–2015); and diversification and value addition (2025 onwards); and regional and global competitiveness, emphasising the shift from exporting raw materials to processing for domestic and export markets.

At the heart of Museveni’s plan is industrialisation and agro-processing. He cited the example of cotton, where a kilogramme sells raw for $1, but when turned into shirts fetches $15, while creating multiple jobs across the value chain.“The jobs are here at home if we process our products. That is the future we are building for our young people,” he stated.

Museveni also praised the National Resistance Movement (NRM) for stabilising Uganda’s economy post-Idi Amin and overcoming hyperinflation and black markets. He said the next five years would focus on moving from stability to structural transformation.“We know where we came from, we know where we are, and we know exactly where we are going,” he told delegates.

With new oil revenues, investments in agro-industrial parks, and focus on regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Uganda’s medium-term prospects appear optimistic. However, turning that optimism into reality will require addressing inefficiencies, youth unemployment, corruption, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Although President Museveni’s promise may be as much about political inspiration, he indicates that the journey has already begun.

Meanwhile, he will be fighting to keep his NRM house in order after what seems to be a bruising jostling on the totem pole.

The likes of Rebecca Alitwala Kadaga, who has recently suffered a crushing loss in the race for the Central Executive Committee (CEC), managing only 902 votes (7.2 percent) against Speaker Anita Among’s overwhelming 11,680 votes (92.8 percent), could likely foment divisions, as her own Busoga backyard is not amused by the latest turn of events.“Mr Chairman, I have told you before that if this goes to a contest, it will cause serious problems in my community. You may think you are fighting me, but you are fighting a bigger community. That’s not right for the politics of Uganda. I have supported all our campaigns, ensured budgets passed, marketed Uganda globally, and served this party faithfully. But I was publicly humiliated when I was removed as Speaker, and I took it in good stride. How much more can you push an individual?” she told the President after her loss.“I have been a member of this party since inception. I started as an LC1 chairperson in 1989. I have never joined any other party. M

In the recently held NRM primaries, Kadaga scored one of the highest wins against rivals, which secured her position as MP in the next Parliament. But her loss of the only position reserved for women at the party’s top is seen as a loss for the whole region.

She told the president about the feeling of her people before the polls and his response was: “Rebecca, you don’t own Busoga. You were not there when I was working with the previous kings, so you should sit down.”But political observers say it will impact the party’s performance in the region in the January 2026 elections. Already, the National Unity Platform defeated NRM in the region in 2021 and Museveni came behind Robert Kyagulanyi in the presidential vote tally. According to Dr Juma Kakuba, a political scientist and lecturer at Kyambogo University, Museveni could lose the Busoga vote.

Busoga has 4.3 million people, according to the 2024 national census, making it one of the most populated regions in the country after Buganda and Ankole.

It has the second-highest number of NRM members, at 2.3 million, after Ankole, according to the NRM register. It has the second-highest number of voters, according to the Electoral Commission, and Musevni has always won in Busoga since 1996, thanks to senior leaders such as Kadaga, the late Kirunda Kivejinja, Daudi Migereko, the late Basoga Nsadhu and Baligeya, many who have either passed on or left the political space.

Some observers from Busoga accuse Kadaga of failure to groom a successor, while others blame political divisions in the region.“This exposes the divisions within Busoga, with electorate failing to rally behind their own in the pursuit of decision-making positions,” one delegate said.

Charles Mpalabule, a district leader in Busoga, says Kadaga’s contributions are undeniable, but notes that new minds are needed to provide modern solutions for prevailing challenges.

Some observers say Museveni’s focus may not be whether he wins Busoga; he needs someone who is close enough in the top leadership of the party, who can change things and who can influence decisions both in the party and in Parliament.

That could explain why Museveni was willing to change the rules that required one to have been a member for many years and accounting for the role in the previous 10 years, even when Kadaga raised it.“When you fill the expression of interest form, you are asked what you have done for NRM in the last 10 years. Those guidelines have not been changed. The person aspiring to this office has only worked for three years. Whether she was doing work elsewhere is her business, but for NRM, it is only three years. We cannot gerrymander the rules,” Kadaga charged.“If we allow someone to come today and immediately become head of the party, what message are we sending? Are loyalty and commitment no longer valued in NRM?” she asked, but got no response.

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