Saudi Aramco’s net profit after minority interest is expected to decline by 2.5% year-on-year (YoY), but rise 11.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 95.1 billion Saudi riyals ($25.36 billion) in the third quarter of 2025, according to a report by AlJazira Capital.

The result will be a 2.6% increase compared to the adjusted net profit reported in Q2 2025.

Net income growth is expected to be supported by higher crude oil production, up 4.8% QoQ to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and slightly higher average crude prices.

Revenue is expected to rise 4.7% QoQ to SAR 426.2 billion, with upstream revenue projected to grow by 8.5% to SAR 172.4 billion, driven by a 4.8% increase in crude oil sales volume and higher oil prices.

The downstream revenue is forecast to increase by 2.3% QoQ to SAR 253.2 billion, backed by improving refining margins.

Brent crude prices averaged $66.5 per barrel in Q3 2025, rising 0.8% QoQ. AlJazira Capital expects the average realized crude oil price for Aramco in Q3 2025 at $67.1 per barrel.

Losses from joint ventures and associate companies will continue, but are forecast to be lower than in Q2 2025.

Total hydrocarbon production is anticipated to increase to 13.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed) in Q3-25 from 12.8 mmboed in the previous quarter, as OPEC+ announced significant unwinding of production cuts from July to September.

Gas production is expected to slightly decrease to 11.7 billion standard cubic feet (bscf) from 11.9 bscf in Q2 2025, impacted by seasonality.

“We expect Aramco’s revenue and earnings to face continued pressure in 2025 due to a fall in oil prices. The topline is expected to decline 5.6% YoY to SAR 1.7 trillion and net income by 5.1% to SAR 374 billion,” the brokerage stated.

It estimates the average oil price at around $68 per barrel, about 14% lower than the prior year.

AlJazira Capital has an “Overweight” rating on Aramco stock, with a target price set at SAR 29.6 per share.

(Editing by Seban Scaria seban.scaria@lseg.com)