Friday, Dec 07, 2012

--Hopes for stronger-than-eyed US jobs data rising

--Yen may weaken further as LDP's Shinzo Abe wins by a landslide 


 
   By Takashi Mochizuki

The dollar was slightly higher against the yen in Asia Friday and may soon top its multi-month high touched recently as speculation grows that U.S. jobs data due later will deliver a positive surprise to the market.

As of 0450 GMT, the dollar was at Y82.48, up slightly from Y82.39 in New York Thursday. Trading was generally quiet as investors were in a wait-and-see mood ahead of 1330 GMT's non-farm payrolls data for November.

Traders say that anticipation is building that the data will beat market forecasts that predict the figure be poor due to Hurricane Sandy's effect on the economy. A Dow Jones poll of economists predicts the headline figure will be a 80,000 gain.

Market participants are becoming increasingly optimistic about the data because Thursday's ADP report showed private-sector jobs increased by 118,000 last month, which traders say is not that bad.

"Until recently we were very pessimistic about the NFP as some even said jobs might have decreased. But the ADP provided a positive figure, and I think the NFP will show that more than 100,000 increase is possible," said Dai Sato, a senior dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank.

If the jobs data turn out to be more than 100,000, the dollar may rise above Y83.00, topping its Nov. 22 high of Y82.84.

Going forward, many investors expect the dollar's ascent to continue because in Japan, the main opposition leader who's known as an aggressive reflationist Shinzo Abe may win the election by a landslide.

"The latest polls suggest the LDP may win an absolute majority in the Lower House, which would give Mr. Abe significant leeway to influence the BOJ's future," said Morgan Stanley analyst Gabriel de Kock. "He has called for a number of policy changes whose chance of implementation would have been considered unthinkable not that long ago."

The euro, meanwhile, was at $1.2966 from $1.2967 and Y106.98 from Y106.88.

Traders say they will pay attention to ECB chief Mario Draghi's speech later in the day, but the market doesn't expect that he will elaborate on remarks he made yesterday that boosted some analysts' speculation over further rate-cuts by the bank.

The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, traded at 70.351 from 70.336. 


 
Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates At 00:50 EST / 0450 GMT 
 
                         Latest     Previous   %Chg   Daily   Daily    %Chg 
                                    2150 GMT          High    Low      12/31 
Dollar Rates 
USD/JPY Japan            82.46-50       82.38-41  +0.10    82.56    82.38  +7.24 
EUR/USD Euro            1.2964-68      1.2967-69  -0.02   1.2972   1.2956  +0.05 
GBP/USD U.K.            1.6052-54      1.6048-53  +0.01   1.6057   1.6038  +3.29 
USD/CHF Switzerland     0.9320-24      0.9322-26  -0.02   0.9334   0.9322  -0.54 
USD/CAD Canada          0.9913-18      0.9911-15  +0.02   0.9918   0.9912  -2.88 
AUD/USD Australia       1.0476-80      1.0484-87  -0.07   1.0486   1.0472  +2.64 
NZD/USD New Zealand     0.8315-20      0.8324-29  -0.10   0.8330   0.8312  +6.96 
 
Euro Rate 
 
EUR/JPY Japan           106.94-96      106.83-87  +0.09   107.07   106.78  +7.42 
 
Source: ICAP PLC

Write to Takashi Mochizuki at takashi.mochizuki@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 07, 2012 00:41 ET (05:41 GMT)