The Iraqi situation keeps getting worse for George W. Bush and Tony Blair. To put it bluntly: the war is already lost. Both the US president and the British prime minister are well aware of this.
But it is politically impossible for them to admit it publicly. This is why they portray it as difficult (needless to say) but slowly improving, even if the public opinion in both countries does not buy it.
For the military coalition, winning the war in Iraq would have required defeating the resistance, the establishment of a stable, US- and UK-friendly government, and the preservation of the first signs of support from the Iraqi public opinion.
None of these requirements have been fulfilled. On the contrary, the military situation is getting more and more chaotic. The death rate is worrying due to an increasing number of casualties, and there is no peace in sight.
Soldiers, policemen and citizens are attacked every day. The Iraqi government is weak and divided, and the future of Iraq as a unified state should not be taken for granted.
The Iraqi army is so unreliable that the US military does not want to share its most advanced weapons with it, fearing they could end up in the hands of the guerillas.
Above all, the public opinion in the US and UK is no longer supporting the war. American citizens are now overwhelmingly criticising the ever-lasting postponement of the military withdrawal.
The Katrina disaster has further dented the president's credibility. Many questions are being raised among the public at large: Would not the US military have been more useful in Louisiana than abroad? What is the purpose of spending $87 billion a year in Iraq while nothing has been done to prevent floods in New Orleans?
Such questions could do more damage to the image of the Bush administration. In Katrina's aftermath, public attention will probably turn to domestic issues.
To justify his policy, Bush is trying to establish a parallel between this conflict and the Second World War.
"After Pearl Harbour our Pacific Fleet was nearly destroyed and the enemy appeared invincible. Those were dark days for freedom, but the darkness would not long prevail."
He is attempting to convince the American people that the hard times in Iraq today are a small price to pay in comparison to the victory that will ensue.
Counterproductive
This comparison, however, may not only be irrelevant but counterproductive. The US territory has not been attacked by Iraqi people. Since the beginning of the war in Iraq, terrorism appears to be growing and not diminishing as expected.
Cindy Sheehan, the mother of a young US soldier killed in Iraq, is becoming an icon of the opposition to Bush. In fact, the relevant comparison is not between the Second World War and the war in Iraq but between the latter and Vietnam.
Bush says chaos will prevail if the US makes a premature exit from Iraq. But for many US citizens, chaos is already prevailing in Iraq.
Tony Blair's situation isn't any better. So far, facing a public opinion massively opposed to the involvement in Iraq, he has still been able to argue that British soldiers have been well accepted by the Iraqi population. After the Basra incident, this is no longer possible.
Meanwhile, Kenneth Clarke of the Conservative party is attempting to take over the party's reins by harshly criticising Bush's and Blair's joint policy in Iraq: "The decision by the government to become the leading ally of President Bush in the Iraq debacle has made Britain one of the foremost targets for Islamic extremists."
The Conservative party is supposed to be closer to American views than New Labour. It is certainly odd to see a potential Conservative leader criticising Blair for his commitment to a US-led policy.
At the Labour party's yearly conference, Blair refused to disclose a time-table for the withdrawal.
"The way to stop the innocent dying is not to retreat, to withdraw, to hand these people over to the mercy of religious fanatics or relics of Saddam, but to stand up for their right to decide their government in the same democratic way the British people do," he said.
It will become increasingly difficult to find a solution and a honourable way out of the mess.
How can the US leave Iraq without suffering humiliation? How can it claim "mission accomplished" and still maintain a degree of credibility?
Neither Bush nor Blair will face electoral competition anytime soon. But they will undoubtedly face the judgement of history. They are in the same boat, but it is a very risky voyage they have embarked on.
Dr Pascal Boniface is the founder and director of IRIS (Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratgiques).
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