24 June 2006
The crisis resulting from Romania's failure to invite President Emile Lahoud to the Francophone Summit on September 14 has revealed that discord within the Christian camp has begun to play a major role in escalating the already tense political situation.
This crisis is an unnecessary addition to the ever-increasing gap between pro-Syrian political forces on one side and the March 14 Forces on the other when it comes to relations with Syria, Palestinian disarmament, and demarcation of the Shebaa Farms' border.
Lahoud's "neglect" was a decision taken at the level of superpowers who were either behind the endorsement of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 (France and the US) - and specifically calling for free presidential elections - or have started supporting it and endorsed Resolution 1680 calling on that part of 1559 to be implemented.
This neglect is the result of support expressed by these superpowers for the stand, once taken by the parliamentary majority, demanding Lahoud be ousted.
Diplomatic circles agree the outcry over the position of Christians, by MP Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and some of the Christian leadership in the March 14 Forces, stems from a belief that the more these leaders defend their confession, the more popular they become.
Such is the confessional reality in Lebanon.
Aoun who won the majority of Christian votes as a Christian leader in the parliamentary elections and remained in opposition is following a policy of solidarity with Lahoud as the majority continues to reject his candidacy for the presidency.
Aoun's dispute with the majority has turned into a defense against ousting Lahoud because he believes that this is the way to monopolize Christian votes.
On the other hand, Christians within the March 14 Forces believe that defending Christian positions of power (although they still want Lahoud to resign) increased their popularity over Aoun. They therefore denounced Lahoud's boycott of the Francophone Summit in the name of protecting a Maronite position of power.
Diplomatic circles involved in the crisis believe that in addition to rivalry over popularity and leadership, rivalry over the presidency has played a role in this crisis to the extent of exaggerating the situation and triggering yet another crisis between Christian leaders and France.
In his defense of Lahoud, Aoun used the alibi of targeting French President Jacques Chirac by saying Chirac's popularity in France was only 17 percent.
This statement will definitely have negative repercussions in Paris which already played a major role in rescuing Aoun giving him political asylum for 15 years when he fled from Baabda Palace as he was hunted by the Syrian Army in 1989.
If Paris played a role in marginalizing Lahoud and was setting a policy with Washington to isolate him, it is because they believe that he is a symbol of Syrian tutelage.
