Eleven weeks after the Syrian troubles began, both government and protesters are trying to break the stalemate which has developed over the past two or three weeks. The government, which continues to crack down on rallies, takes the line that demonstrations are diminishing and once they stop completely, reforms demanded by the people will be announced.
Sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union on President Bashar Assad and senior regime figures, including his brother Maher, commander of the Fourth Mechanised Brigade, and cousin, Rami Makhlouf, a tycoon, have failed to dent Damascus' determination to crush the revolt, particularly since it has not grown into a full-fledged uprising on the Egyptian scale.
The opposition is striving mightily to maintain the pressure on the government by keeping up Friday protests, but lacking recognised leaders on the ground in Syria, it has failed to adopt a coherent strategy and unified demands. Some cautious protesters are staging demonstrations at night and evading the security forces while armed tribesmen are giving the lie to claims that protests are peaceful by shooting security agents and soldiers.
Last weekend, the death toll was reported by human rights organisations to stand at 55, higher than the previous Friday-Saturday combination of demonstrations and funerals-cum-protests.
This spike prompted Joshua Landis, writing in Syrian Comment, to dismiss as "premature" official claims that the crackdown had defeated the protests. He argued that US President Barack Obama's address on Thursday "gave courage to the demonstrators... it seems clear that the culture of revolution that has spread among the young generation... will not be uprooted or destroyed by fear or fire-power".
His assessment may also prove to be premature if the level of Friday protests cannot be sustained.
Lebanese Communist Party international media spokeswoman Marie Nassif-Debs told this correspondent that dialogue is the only solution.
Without dialogue Syria could "explode into civil war between Sunnis and Alawites", the small Shiite community of Assad and other key regime figures. She warned that the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, the main Sunni opposition organisation, has adopted the slogan: "Christians to Lebanon, Alawites in the tomb."
She stated: "We support the young reformers [and] we are pressing the Syrian Communist Party [which is part of the ruling front led by the Baath] to take part in reforms.... It is not possible to continue" with the current system.
The law that gives the Baath control "must be changed" to permit the emergence of multi-party democracy.
In an interview made available to this writer, George Jabbour, a former political adviser of previous president Hafez Al Assad, spoke of the causes of the unrest. He said the revolt was launched by "the deprived people of Deraa and the deprived people everywhere", notably among those living in urban centres around Damascus where there is little investment and, in consequence, resentment and a feeling that the poor are ignored.
These people have formed "a coalition" with "people of human rights culture who really are working to improve the situation regarding human rights".
He pointed out that within the coalition are "certain confessional [sectarian] tendencies", but denied that Christians worried more about these tendencies than Muslims.
He said the threat of confessional tensions and conflict in Syria grew after the US occupation of Iraq where Shiite-Sunni rivalries led to massive bloodletting in 2006-07.
Syria, a secular state with 18 confessional groupings, has always faced infection from Lebanon's traditional confessionalism to the west.
Jabbour, a former Baath party member of parliament, observed: "We have some confessional pronouncements during demonstrations... but [this] continues to be minor, marginal".
One of the most worrying aspects of the situation, he said, is the discovery "that there are arms in Syria in a quantity I never thought exists". Anyone seeking to own arms must apply for a licence to the interior ministry which, he asserted, "is not very generous in giving licences".
"What we have witnessed is some armed gangs killing the troops, security forces... police. They were certainly not killed by slogans shouted by the demonstrators, they were killed by bullets," he asked, adding: "So, who did the shooting?"
"The circumstances are not clear to me. But it seems... that there were people carrying illegal arms and they were financed and armed by [unknown] forces. I always thought that the Syrian government is strong enough in terms of security and able to discover all these things before they explode. [It] did not. But then this means that we are not totally immune from arms traffic [across] borders."
Regarding accusations that Syria faces a conspiracy, Jabbour asserted: "...every government in the Middle East has to think there are always conspiracies around, so conspiracy is not something new."
He agreed "100 per cent" with the protesters' demands for reform but insisted: "The violence has to be condemned."
He welcomed the dialogue initiated by Bouthaina Shaaban, Assad's political adviser, with veteran opposition members based in Syria.
"It was the first time the government - or a government spokesman - talks about 'opposition'."
In Syria, "opposition" to the party in power, the Baath, has not been permitted. Therefore, her references to the "opposition" and "views of the opposition" are positive developments.
"As a matter of fact, I have been calling for a dialogue from the very first moment of the eruption of the events... what is needed for a dialogue is to [identify] the parties who are eligible ... and to [fix] an agenda."
He has proposed creating the post of deputy prime minister for national dialogue as the authorities have done in Egypt. He believes that two months after the revolt began in the southern town of Deraa, "we are almost through with the trouble. And I hope the lesson ... will be positive. I am totally optimistic that in the aftermath of what has happened, we will have more freedom of expression, we will have more freedom of association, we will have stronger national unity based on the fact that confessionalism is not accepted. We will have more economic equality."
© Jordan Times 2011
