09 July 2008
In 1980 when the then-town of El Asnam (Chlef today) was devastated by an earthquake, famed geologist Haroun Tazieff warned of the big one that was yet to come. His televised expert opinion scared many and millions of Algerians did not like what they heard. Decades later and the big one is indeed yet to come. And yet nothing has been done to prepare the capital's housing infrastructure as Algeria was busy dealing with its darkest political era in its modern history. All it takes is to drive in and around the city of Algiers to comprehend the looming catastrophe if a strong earthquake hits. Experts say the whole nation would suffer if the capital is hit by a quake measuring 7 degrees on the Richter scale. A similar event that destroyed the province of Boumerdes to the east of the capital could lead to far greater destruction and losses if it happens in Algiers.
The risk is undoubtedly compounded by the existence of an enormous base of homes and construction sites that are far from reaching today's basic anti-seismic rules. An estimated 80% of the housing units and building in the capital are said to be unfit to withstand a high-magnitude tremor. But that's not just Algiers. All other major cities, from Oran in the northwest to Constantine and Annaba in the northeast, face the very same critical risk of utter destruction. The 80% rate mentioned in this analysis comes from the fact that these housing units and buildings are more than 50 years of age, constructed during the colonial era when quakes were a lot less known fact and certainty than today.
The sorry state of Algeria's housing and other infrastructure system may not be on the agenda of decision makers and the political elite, but a group of specialists has been vocal about this issue recently. Its members have been raising red flags to bring the problem front and center in the political debate, but their voices remain to be heard. These analysts have been calling for the formation of a study group to assess the vulnerability of old houses, which are in the millions. They are lobbying for the establishment of a special fund to identify high-risk infrastructure and analyze it, before exploring measures to secure it. The challenges, however, are enormous and financing an upgrade project could be so costly that it is out of Algeria's financial capabilities. Experts argue that in Japan, the cost of anti-seismic buildings often exceeds the $150 million level. For now, Algeria does not even have a national agency that would draft basic urban development rules and monitor them. Such agency is necessary even more today than ever before in an effort to revisit what has been done and how to rectify the trends.
Even in today's large scale projects very little attention is paid to anti-seismic techniques and quake readiness. An agency such as the one proposed by experts would help prevent catastrophes such as the breakage of the dam of Beni Haroun in the province of Mila, which consumed hundreds of millions of dollars over a period of 20 years without being completed. Algeria is currently preparing to spend $3 billion on a controversial construction of a mosque in the capital city and such a massive infrastructure cannot be possibly completed without a thorough seismic diagnosis and investment in readiness. Experts cite the case of the Emir Abdelkader and Milia mosques which sustained substantial damage as a result of landslides. For now, authorities have their thoughts elsewhere. Algeria's priorities today are on creating a basic economy that can sustain itself and grow so as to absorb unemployment. As such the likelihood to modernize the housing sector is limited to none. In contrast, the likelihood of a nature catastrophe with a potential to inflict massive damage is a certainty.
In 1980 when the then-town of El Asnam (Chlef today) was devastated by an earthquake, famed geologist Haroun Tazieff warned of the big one that was yet to come. His televised expert opinion scared many and millions of Algerians did not like what they heard. Decades later and the big one is indeed yet to come. And yet nothing has been done to prepare the capital's housing infrastructure as Algeria was busy dealing with its darkest political era in its modern history. All it takes is to drive in and around the city of Algiers to comprehend the looming catastrophe if a strong earthquake hits. Experts say the whole nation would suffer if the capital is hit by a quake measuring 7 degrees on the Richter scale. A similar event that destroyed the province of Boumerdes to the east of the capital could lead to far greater destruction and losses if it happens in Algiers.
The risk is undoubtedly compounded by the existence of an enormous base of homes and construction sites that are far from reaching today's basic anti-seismic rules. An estimated 80% of the housing units and building in the capital are said to be unfit to withstand a high-magnitude tremor. But that's not just Algiers. All other major cities, from Oran in the northwest to Constantine and Annaba in the northeast, face the very same critical risk of utter destruction. The 80% rate mentioned in this analysis comes from the fact that these housing units and buildings are more than 50 years of age, constructed during the colonial era when quakes were a lot less known fact and certainty than today.
The sorry state of Algeria's housing and other infrastructure system may not be on the agenda of decision makers and the political elite, but a group of specialists has been vocal about this issue recently. Its members have been raising red flags to bring the problem front and center in the political debate, but their voices remain to be heard. These analysts have been calling for the formation of a study group to assess the vulnerability of old houses, which are in the millions. They are lobbying for the establishment of a special fund to identify high-risk infrastructure and analyze it, before exploring measures to secure it. The challenges, however, are enormous and financing an upgrade project could be so costly that it is out of Algeria's financial capabilities. Experts argue that in Japan, the cost of anti-seismic buildings often exceeds the $150 million level. For now, Algeria does not even have a national agency that would draft basic urban development rules and monitor them. Such agency is necessary even more today than ever before in an effort to revisit what has been done and how to rectify the trends.
Even in today's large scale projects very little attention is paid to anti-seismic techniques and quake readiness. An agency such as the one proposed by experts would help prevent catastrophes such as the breakage of the dam of Beni Haroun in the province of Mila, which consumed hundreds of millions of dollars over a period of 20 years without being completed. Algeria is currently preparing to spend $3 billion on a controversial construction of a mosque in the capital city and such a massive infrastructure cannot be possibly completed without a thorough seismic diagnosis and investment in readiness. Experts cite the case of the Emir Abdelkader and Milia mosques which sustained substantial damage as a result of landslides. For now, authorities have their thoughts elsewhere. Algeria's priorities today are on creating a basic economy that can sustain itself and grow so as to absorb unemployment. As such the likelihood to modernize the housing sector is limited to none. In contrast, the likelihood of a nature catastrophe with a potential to inflict massive damage is a certainty.
© The North Africa Journal 2008
