The local consumer electronics market - annually worth around Dh3.5 billion - has recorded a sharp drop in volumes over the last two weeks, as uncertainties over Iraq tamped down demand. Buyers from the traditional re-export markets are holding their bets and waiting for an easing of tension to come back to the market, say industry sources.

But the sector is not too perturbed by the turn of events as the Dubai Shopping Festival in January had contributed good gains, both from the domestic and re-export markets.

And a full recovery could be had by as early as June, according to senior market sources. According to T.S. Shettigar, director of finance at Jumbo Electronics: "For some time now market sentiments have been rather depressed, more on account of uncertainties associated with the impending war.

"Customers have generally been more cautious before making commitments, and this has had some impact on our overall business.

"Even the re-export markets have shown some slow-down. We believe that the war will be rather brief and, given the near certain outcome of the war, we expect a significant revival of the market in June, and the Iraq market in particular.

"Thus, while there are short-term uncertainties and lack of stability, the medium and long term should see some degree of buoyancy in the region."

A decline purely for the short-term is a sentiment shared by Sajid Mahmood, managing director of MidAsia Trading, which represents Japan's Kenwood range.

"Re-exports to Iraq and Kuwait have stopped completely, which is not a surprise. Iran is not that affected.

"This time, the market is more or less aware of how the war will play out, unlike in 1990 when there was a lot of concern. This time, the many Japanese companies based in Dubai are not moving out, which is again a reflection of the confidence that things will be sorted out soon.

"The most impact will be limited to the first 15 days or so, and then it should be back to normalcy."

According to sources, even in a worst case scenario, the dip in purely domestic sales will not be more than 5 to 10 per cent during the interim.

The major supermarket chains - which have become a key medium for electronics sales - have so far recorded fairly stable volumes. The softening is only apparent in the souq outlets.

Gulf News