For most people, the definition of boring is cement dull, lifeless, gray and totally devoid of excitement. Obviously those people didn't spend the last month in the offices of the national competition regulators, who in October launched a slew of antitrust proceedings against practically the entire cement industry. Rumor has it that top investors pulled every political string they could to make the charges go away, but apparently the foreign-dominated sector just didn't have the political clout to make it happen. Funny no such charges have been made against the steel sector
A lack of clout is not normally something you would associate with Telecom Egypt, but the local fixed-line monopoly suffered a humiliating "let's just be friends"-style rejection in October from a beautiful young lady named Telecom Slovenia. TE went up against the international big boys in the race for a 49.1% stake in the Slovenian operator, and got an embarrassing slap to the face when its bid wasn't even acknowledged by the Slovenian government. Rumor has it that unsubstantiated "security" concerns were behind the Slovenian cold shoulder.
Security concerns, fictional or otherwise, don't seem to have done much harm to the career of TE Chairman Akil Beshir rumor of the month, with solid sources, is that Bashir is to become the Minister of Communications and Information Technology in an upcoming cabinet shuffle. One of the trendiest, most challenging jobs in Egyptian politics, the MCIT has in the past been the stomping ground for two people who essentially defined the technocracy that has driven reform in recent years: Ahmed Nazif and Tarek Kamel. Big shoes to fill.
We won't be saying goodbye to Kamel, however; rumor has it that as part of the shuffle he will become Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research, a position that has largely stayed out of the spotlight in recent years. Kamel's IT savvy and belief in a reformist technocracy will no doubt be a welcome addition to a portfolio in desperate need of attention. Rumor has it Kamel will be joined by long-time education policy champion Hossam Badrawi, former chairman of the Education and Scientific Research committee in parliament, who will become Minister of Education as part of the shuffle.
A telecoms man running education, and a telecoms man running the MCIT is this the beginning of the Rise of the PhoneMen? Although the country's telecoms businesses continue to go from strength to strength, there were a couple of stumbles in October. Rumor has it that Orascom Telecom is starting what is likely to be a long, slow withdrawal from its 20% stake in global player Hutchison Telecommunications, which is great for OT's cashflow but perhaps not the best for its exposure to international markets.
Vodafone Egypt has made it clear that it won't be applying for one of the international gateway licenses to be made available next year. Officially, the company has said it is happy with the status quo. Rumor has it that Telecom Egypt, Vodafone's 45% shareholder (and owner of the current international gateway used by all operators) may have played a role in Vodafone deciding not to go it on its own.
Importers smiled and exporters wept as the US dollar continued a long, embarrassing devaluation in October, thanks to well, let's be honest, thanks to pretty much everything the US government has done since 2001. The greenback has slid by 2% in the last two months, and Central Bank officials are now talking about a further 5% slide by the end of the year.
C'mon people, let's grow some ambition. LE 5 to the dollar may be a pretty serious short-term target, but 1:1 is where the real money is at. New iPods could be bought for the cost of a couple of airport taxi fares! Fuul vendors will become millionaires! We low-paid journalists could start buying real Corn Flakes instead of the cheap knockoff stuff! We may not be economists, but this logic seems pretty flawless
For some reason, the CBE disagrees. When the dollar hit 5.5 in the middle of the month, rumor has it that they stepped in, purchasing $800 million worth of dollars from the market in an effort to keep the dollar declining in a steady, orderly fashion much like American power and prestige abroad? Anyhow, if the rumors are true, this would be the first major Central Bank intervention in the currency market here since 2006.
Rumormongers in the currency trade keep mentioning the name of one particular bank who used dollars to buy up a huge amount of foreign currency as part of a complicated international finance deal in mid-October. Rumor has it the traders all shared a good laugh around the water cooler the next morning when they heard that their transaction had directly led to a decline in the dollar. And people say bankers are boring?
© Business Today Egypt 2007
