President Bouteflika of Algeria is going on a domestic political offensive with the central theme being reconciliation. However, his strategy has yet to convince the world that he is on the right track. Bouteflika is working to drum up support for a national referendum to be held on September 29, 2005. The goal of the referendum is to establish a "charter for peace and reconciliation" to end the state of quasi civil war involving Islamist extremists. For this purpose, Bouteflika campaigned this week in the highly troubled Kabylie region. The region has problems of its own unrelated to Islamist insurgency but related to the rights of ethnic minorities of the region.
Although he was expected to address the grievances of the Kabyles while in the region, President Bouteflika has once again squandered an important opportunity when he decided to pay lip service to the dismal political, social and economic situation the region has seen over the past years.
In a 40-minute speech he gave early this week, there was no mention of true reconciliation between the central government and the region, and yet tension has been running high. The Kabyles have long suffered for wanting their cultural rights and paid dearly for that. More than 125 people were killed since 2001 during protests organized to demand greater cultural rights. All the central government did was to use its massive police and military resources to crack down on a population that has always had basic legitimate grievances.
This time again, Bouteflika failed to deliver on his promise of reconciliation. His speech was conducted in Arabic and French. There was no mention of the El-Kseur platform, a series of demands that have been in negotiation between the central government and its authors, the Arouch, a group representing the people of the Kabylie. There was no mention of making official the Tamazight language or the 125 people who died in 2001 for demanding their rights. All he had in mind was his national reconciliation charter, which will extend an olive branch to terrorists while neglecting the fundamental rights of millions of Algerians of the Kabylie region.
Meanwhile, although we expected fresh partial local and regional elections to be held in January 2006, the Kabyles will be called to vote sooner, more precisely on November 24, 2005 instead. The Kabylie has long been the base of a political and cultural movement seeking to boost the fundamental rights of the local ethnic Berber population. The movement has been battling the government for so long and although it scored a series of victories such as the official constitutional recognition of the Tamazight language, a final settlement on the whole Berbers' rights issue has yet to materialize.
The upcoming elections are meant to send a positive signal to the local population, but a lot more will have to be achieved before full reconciliation can be declared.
The November partial elections are the center of attention for the key political parties and independent candidates mobilized to win as many mayoral, local and regional assembly seats. Although the mandates in these elections call for a short assignment of only two years, these elections carry a major political significance in that they should identify for the first time since April 2001 who the Kabyles want as their official representatives and as their political leaders. The results could also impact national politics with the possible introduction of decentralization and more autonomy to the regions.
The event will undoubtedly constitute an important test for Algerian politics and certainly for Bouteflika's legacy and how he will be judged by history. The Kabyle problem and the past four years of catastrophic mismanaging a deadly conflict that could have been prevented are soar points for Bouteflika. While he appears keen to see the Kabyle problem stabilize as it brought negative reactions from his traditional allies abroad, in particular France, the president has not put enough energy on the issue and has been allowing others in the regime to manage the crisis, often by using force and intimidation to crackdown on the local populations.
Although they have lost credibility in favor of the locally selected Arouch popular representatives, the political parties also have a great a deal at stake in these upcoming elections. All of them will find out who is still respected in the population and who is not. In addition to the traditionally well-entrenched political parties, namely the Berber-leaning FFS (Socialist Forces Front) and the RCD (Culture and Democracy Rally), and to a certain extent the long-present nationalist FLN (National Liberation Front), other parties that are strong outside of the region will have to make an effort to build a position for themselves. Winning assembly seats will be a difficult endeavor. The lack of credibility from the parties like RND, the Islamist-leaning MSP, El Islah, UDR and the left wing PT (Workers' Party) certainly means that these parties will invest resources and will likely get close to nothing in return. But as November approaches, political parties and independent candidates have been busy campaigning. Less than a week after local authorities opened their offices to receive applications to run for elections, the province of Bejaia alone received eight applications for the provincial assembly and 62 for municipal assemblies. Local observers expect record participation this year.
For the FFS there is no time to waste and campaigning has already begun. It is the potential loser this year because in the previous elections held in October 2002, it managed to win a majority of seats across the entire Kabylie region and in most governing bodies. This is a similar situation for the FLN, which has held a strong position for the past three years. However, many say the FLN used its power position to impose itself during chaotic times. Hence, they expect the nationalist party may find it more difficult to convince the voters to elect it again given its link to the central government.
While the Workers Party is hoping to use its populist speeches to win some seats, the traditionally entrenched RCD party has faced difficult moments in its natural base in the region because of its lack of clear stance in favor of the Kabyle democratic movement when the region was facing turmoil. The RCD is often seen as having sided with the regime, an image that may take a great deal of skills to correct. But the RCD is doing all it can, including recalling some of its former local and regional leaders to reinvigorate the base.
The more recently formed RND, a party supporting the president and led by Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, has been active alongside its other rival UDR in setting up a local presence in virtually every municipality in the Kabylie region. MSP and El-Islah have been activating their contacts based on religious links, but the Kabyles have traditionally been suspicious of religious groups and it is unlikely they will pay attention to the MSP and El-Islah, in particular.
While the outcome of these elections is critical for the local populations and for Algeria as a whole, decisions made in the presidential palace and in other centers of power as how to respond to the grievances of the Kabyles will be even more important for Algeria and its people. The government is struggling, and often resisting to articulate a sound strategy for the region. But it is also inconceivable that the Kabyles will accept anything less than what they have been requesting, namely a full recognition of their linguistic and cultural heritage and the right to chose their representatives. Without these and more, Bouteflika's dream of reconciliation will never materialize.
By Arezki Daoud
The North Africa Journal 2005
