Tunisia and Morocco conducted recently a comprehensive population census. The previous ones were also conducted the same year, in 1994. Although not all the figures and statistics are available, the preliminary data shows a substantial reduction in population growth rates and a maturing population structure.
This is particularily the case of Tunisia, which population profile is increasingly lining up with that of OECD countries and the Tunisians are enjoying one of the best economies in Africa and in the Arab world.
As of the end of 2004 the Tunisian population amounted to 9,910,872. It has been expanding by an average of 120,000 people per year from 1994 to 2004, with a total addition of 1.125 million during that entire period. Therefore population growth has been well under control, growing at only 1.21%, down from 1994's 2.35%. This rate is reportedly one of the lowest in Africa.
The taming of population growth in Tunisia is largely attributed to the country's policies toward women and their status generally considered to be the most advanced in the Middle Easter North Africa (MENA) region. Women's access to work and education have inhibited the growth of households and improved their living conditions.
In terms of its geographic profile, the vast majority (65%) of the Tunisian population lives in urban centers, mostly along the Mediterranean costline. Tunis, which represents only 2% of the Tunisian territory is home of 20% of the entire population. For example the housing complex of Ettadhamen in the capital alone contains more residents than the city of Bizerte. In general the trend in both migration and population growth appears to be benefiting the large costal cities like Tunis, Sfax, Sousse and Bizerte, while inland cities like Siliana and Kef are seeing a decline in their growth and an accelerated outbound migration of its population.
The active population continued to growth during the past decade, now accounting for 64% of the population in 2004 compared to 56.9% in 1994. Two trends are noticeable in the population's age structure. The share of the less than 4 years old was down to 8.1% in 2004 from 11% in 2003. In contrast, with 9.3% in 2004, the more than 60 years old account for a bigger pie of the total population, compared to 8.3% in the previous year.
In terms of general education, the illiteracy rate fell sharply in the decade ending in 2004. Despite remaining significant at 22.9%, the illiteracy rate was reduced from 31.7% in 1994.
There are 2,186,000 households in Tunisia with an average of 4.5 members. With 2.5 million housing units, there are apparently 314,000 housing units that are either vacant or used as secondary residences.
The census indicates fairly advanced standards of living that the Tunisian population enjoys. In brief, the statistics show that reaching 98.9% of the population, electrification and access to power is nearly complete. 21% of households have an automobile, 90% have a TV set, 36% a fixed telephone line and 46% dispose of a mobile phone subscription.
In Morocco, some of the data collected recently during the general census is already available, while the statistics relative of housing, employment and other figures will only be released in summer 2005.
In general, the Moroccan population amounted to 29,891,708 people by the end of 2004, expanding by 3,817,984 since 1994. This represents a total growth of 14.6%, or an annual rate averaging 1.4%. This rate was down from 2.1% for the period of 1982 to 1994.
The data indicates that the urban population grew at the fast rate of 22.66% from 1994 to now, amounting to more than 16.463 million. The urbanization rate is now 55.1% against 51% calculated in the previous census conducted in 1994. The rural population also grew to 13.428 million from the previous figure of 12.6 million in 1994. At the average annual rate of 0.6%, rural population growth did not slow considerably from previous periods, indicating that migration outflows from rural areas may not entirely be true. Although statisticians and population experts previously predicted a contraction of the rural population, it actually expanded by 784,015 over a decade despite the lack of a government policy to limit such outflow.
From the regional distribution perspective, Greater Casablanca is home of the largest population in the country with 3.6 million residents there. Casa is followed by the regions of Sous-Massa-Draa and Marrakech Tensift-Al Haouz, each with 3.1 million inhabitants. This concentration in these regions is attributed to the economic impact these zones have had on the population. But experts are already predicting important changes with the emergence of competing regions, such as the northern provinces which have been the recipients of a great deal of investment to develop the local and regional economies.
Within Greater Casablanca, the city of Casablanca is the country's biggest city and is home for 2.95 million inhabitants or 10% of the country's population. Casablanca still remains the nation's economic and industrial capital but its population has stabilized. Casablanca managed to avoid becoming the out-of-control megalopolis many predicted. Rabat also stabilized with its population remaining unchanged from 2004.
Other cities such as Nouaceur and Mediouna saw their populations grow by more than 3%, while the fastest growing cities are Tangier, Laayoune and Agadir. There is a major demographic explosion in the municipalities of Ait Melloul and Temara with population growth rates of 4.6% and 5.6%, respectively.
In contrast, the provinces of Tiznit and Jerada witnessed a sharp population decrease essentially due to the collapse of coal mining activity in these regions.
Parallel to this census, a comprehensive survey conducted in 2002 by the health ministry indicated that the lower demographic growth can be greatly attributed to a decline in birth rates over the past decade. The ratio of children per woman was 2.5 in 2002, against 3.3 in 1994. In 2000, the average age of newly married women was 27.4, up from 25.8 in 1994. This latest census will certainly provide a wealth of additional information, but we will have to wait until summer 2005 to learn more.
© The North Africa Journal 2005
