By Natacha Yazbeck

QADISHA VALLEY, Jan 06, 2011 (AFP) - Deadly attacks on Christians in Iraq and Egypt have left Lebanon's dwindling Christian community anxiously mulling its own uncertain future in a predominantly Muslim region.

"We are a minority in the turbulent waters of the Middle East," said Teddy Awad, 42, a Maronite Catholic from the northern village of Hasroun on the edge of the Qadisha Valley, considered the Christian heartland of Lebanon.

"Our problems go back centuries," he told AFP, as he played cards with other locals at the village cafe.

"Lebanon's Christians may be better off than Egypt's Copts ... but any political upheaval could see us suffer the same fate.

"We too have long suffered persecution and it's not for nothing that our ancestors had to hide in this valley."

Deep in Lebanon's north, Wadi Qadisha, or "Holy Valley," has provided sanctuary to monastic communities since the beginnings of the Christian Maronite faith, which is loyal to the Vatican.

The rugged mountains and sloping cliffs are dotted with monasteries, hermitages and caves that sheltered Christians fleeing persecution as far back as the 5th century.

"Our history is one of martyrdom," said Father Sharbel Trad, a monk who has dedicated his life to preserving the Maronite faith in Lebanon.

"Our vocation, as Christians, is to stay right here, and to spread Christianity in the East. And we are not afraid."

After the Copts of Egypt, Lebanon's Christian community is the largest of any country of the Middle East. The majority of them are Maronites, but there are also Eastern Orthodox, Latin Catholics, Armenian Orthodox and Protestants.

The New Year's Day attack on a church in Alexandria, which left 21 dead, provoked widespread condemnation among Lebanon's Christians.

"The Copts ... are the true children of Egypt and an integral part of their country," Orthodox Archbishop Theophilus George Saliba said earlier this week.

While the attacks in Egypt and Iraq have sparked anxiety among Lebanese Christians, few believe the same could happen in Lebanon, given the country's unique confessional-based political system.

Samir Geagea, a former warlord and head of the Christian Lebanese Forces, downplayed the likelihood of Al-Qaeda-style attacks on his community, saying it would not serve the interest of any of the country's religious-based parties.

"Targeting Christians in Lebanon is more difficult in light of our political structure, but also due to the fact that there are few Al-Qaeda-linked cells and they are closely monitored by security and military forces," Geagea told AFP.

"I do not at all agree that the Christians of the East are headed for extinction," he added, while acknowledging that their numbers were dwindling.

"Lebanon's political system guarantees that, regardless of numbers, the representation of each community in government will remain the same."

Odon Vallet, a French historian and expert on religion, for his part is less optimistic.

"All Christians across the Near East are in a difficult situation," Vallet said.

"There is no easy answer as to whether Lebanon's Christian community will eventually disappear," he told AFP. "But it is certainly a risk."

The only country in the region with a Christian president, Lebanon has long prided itself as an example of pluralism and coexistence.

Christians today make up an estimated 34 percent of Lebanon's four million population with Muslims, both Shiites and Sunnis, and minority Druze accounting for the rest.

"Their percentage, their significance is on the decline," said Vallet. "In Lebanon, Christians have already left en masse."

Once a force to be reckoned with, Lebanese Christians' political leverage has steadily eroded since the start of the 1975-1990 civil war -- a sectarian bloodbath -- as high emigration and low fertility take their toll.

And while Lebanon has been a safe haven for Christian Iraqis fleeing persecution, the country's own Christians have increasingly looked to escape the economic and political unrest of their homeland.

Many of them today say the believe their days are numbered.

"The solution for our community seems to be securing a visa out of here in any way possible," said Awad, to nods of approval from his fellow card players.

Added Laba Ghosn, a butcher in Hasroun: "There is no future for Christians here.

"Look at our youth," he said. "They are all looking for a fast way out."

ny/jz/al

Copyright AFP 2011.