Lebanon's tourism industry may again be hard hit by the threat of political instability at home and the reality of slowing economic growth, as well as unrest in some of its main markets, with an unseasonal chill settling over the summer holiday period.
Along with many countries in the region, Lebanon is feeling a cool breeze blowing over its tourism hopes for the season. Regional tourism has all but gone into reverse, with unrest and economic woes resulting in the gains of last year evaporating, according to the UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO).
While the UNWTO is predicting an increase of between 4% and 5% for international arrivals globally, the Middle East and North African regions are expected to see tourism numbers fall sharply. In a report issued at the end of June, the UN agency said the Middle East had witnessed a 14% fall in arrivals in the first four months of the year, with a drop of 11% in the North African region.
These two areas enjoyed a 14% jump in arrivals in 2010, with Lebanon being one of the star attractions. Having broken all arrival records with 2.17m visitors going through passport control last year, much if not all of that progress could now be eroded, though the UNWTO did say that it expected destinations such as Lebanon "currently facing difficulties will see demand to recover towards the end of the year".
So far this year, Lebanon is even underperforming regional results, with arrivals down by more than 18% over the first five months of the year compared to the 2010 figures for the same period. As of the end of May, Lebanon had welcomed some 596,000 overseas arrivals, down from the 733,000 for the opening five months of 2010, according to data issued by Byblos Bank at the end of June.
More worrying is the downward trend, with May seeing the greatest drop so far this year, with arrivals down by 29.1% against the same month last year, while incoming visitor numbers in January were down just 7.6%.
Nassib Ghobril, head economist at Byblos Bank, said that blame for the slowdown in the sector can be laid at a number of doors, with domestic political instability and regional turmoil being well to the fore. "I think Western tourists have written off the Arab world since early this year," he said in an interview with Now Lebanon, a news site, on June 26. "As for Gulf nationals, with the turmoil in Syria, they might be concerned that it might spill over here. So I don't expect the same number of Gulf nationals to be here during the summer."
Hotel occupancy rates have fallen in line with visitor numbers, with Beirut seeing average occupancy rates of 50% in the first four months of the year. This was down from 72% in the same period of 2010, according to data from Ernst & Young, although the industry did benefit from a temporary pick-up after the new coalition government was formed in mid-June.
Domestic concerns may ramp up in the coming weeks after the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) - tasked with investigating the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister - issued an initial indictment calling for the arrest and trial of four members of Hezbollah. The organisation, which now forms part of the coalition government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, has denied any link to the killing of Hariri and has in the past said it will not accept any unfavourable findings by the tribunal.
On July 1, the day after the STL handed over its report to a senior Lebanese state prosecutor, the country's tourism minister, Fadi Abboud, called for calm and warned against any actions that could harm the sector.
"I hope that tourism remains immune from any political tensions because it represents 20% of the national income," Abboud told local radio station Voice of Lebanon. "I call on politicians not to spread false rumours, especially in the Gulf media, which describe the situation in Lebanon as critical."
Thus, Lebanon's tourism sector will have to wait and see how developments pan out both domestically and regionally, though even in a best-case scenario the industry will have trouble coming close to the strong performances of last year, let alone breaking records.
© Oxford Business Group 2011
