Ideas for a Christian Lebanese revival

Among the most pressing political issues in Lebanon today is the uncertain position of the Christians, in a region in which the fortunes of the community are subject to all manner of vicissitudes. Increasingly, it is advisable to think of long-term, comprehensive solutions to the problem of Christian insecurity in both Lebanon and the Middle East. One solution is for Lebanon to become a country for its long-term residents, its expatriates, and those Christians of the region who are persecuted. Indeed, were Lebanon to absorb Christian refugees from neighboring countries and grant them citizenship, it could fulfill its historical role as a haven for persecuted Christians, shore up Christian numbers, and allow the naturalization of a good number of the long-term resident, mostly Muslim, Palestinian refugees in the country, for whom no real alternative future exists, despite official claims to the contrary.

For centuries before its creation as a modern state, Lebanon served as a refuge for maltreated Christian and Muslim minorities. Modern Lebanon was created in 1920 for the specific purpose of ensuring a Christian majority (and a Maronite plurality), although the addition of predominantly Muslim regions to overwhelmingly Christian Mount Lebanon (deemed necessary for the economic viability of the proposed country) admittedly complicated this design. In the decades immediately following its creation, Lebanon was particularly attentive to the plight of oppressed Christians – naturalizing Armenian refugees, most Palestinian Christian refugees, and other Christians from Iraq, Syria and even Egypt. 

Yet Christians in Lebanon have become a minority. Perhaps the most dependable source of information in this regard is a survey of Lebanon’s voter rolls published in Al-Nahar by the researcher Joseph Doueihy in 2005, which found registered Muslim voters to be 59.2 percent, and their Christian counterparts to be 40.8 percent. Given the higher Muslim birthrate, a general population census would likely show an even higher percentage of Muslims; and the gap will probably continue to widen. Yet the main institutions governing the country, above all Parliament, continue to operate on the basis of a Taif-mandated 50-50 split. This situation of disproportionate Christian representation is untenable.

The solution need not be the scrapping of the 50-50 formula, but rather reinforcing its justification by re-emphasizing Lebanon’s role as a sanctuary for Christians. Crucially, the Christians deemed eligible for Lebanese citizenship must be political refugees, not economic migrants. Eligibility should therefore be determined on a country-by-country basis.

Every so often, the (sometimes discriminatory) treatment of Christians in this or that Arab or Muslim country degenerates into persecution. Such a scenario occurred in Iraq following the toppling of Saddam Hussein and the rise of Islamic extremism there. The result has been terrorism, mass exodus, and the halving of the country’s Christian community. Unlike many Muslims who have fled for Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, Christians do not want to return. Since they cannot stay indefinitely in their host countries, they will end up emigrating to the West. Nobody of sound mind would suggest that the historical continuity of the Christian community of Iraq should take precedence over saving its persecuted members, so it is impossible to begrudge these refugees their desire to move to the West. 

Yet there is a way to allow these Christians to remain in their ancestral region – if not their home country – and to save their lives. Were Lebanon to absorb those interested in making a future for themselves, both objectives would be achieved. Simultaneously, Lebanon could increase the number of Lebanese Christians so that, over time, they would come close to representing 50 percent of the population (allowing the first official census since 1932 to be conducted), thereby justifying the Taif ratio. 

This is where the Palestinians enter the picture. When a final-status agreement is reached between Israelis and Palestinians, many Palestinian refugees in Lebanon are likely to leave for a Palestinian state, Western countries, or Israel. Yet it is impossible to imagine that Lebanon will not be asked to naturalize a substantial share of the 250,000 to 400,000 refugees living in the country, something the state has hitherto rejected on the grounds that it would upset the country’s sectarian balance. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine that with Christians making up 41 percent of the population or lower, some 100,000 Palestinian Muslims (an arbitrary but probably not unrealistic figure) will be given Lebanese citizenship. 

Thus, re-emphasizing Lebanon’s role as a refuge for persecuted Christians will simultaneously make it easier to naturalize long-resident Palestinian Muslims who have been denied, in many ways unfairly, Lebanese citizenship. Other long-resident Muslims, such as many Lebanese Kurds and some Bedouin, whose status has been “under consideration” for decades, would also finally receive their due. So long as more Christians than Muslims are naturalized, the process will gradually redress the demographic imbalance and justify retention of the 50-50 formula.

Leaving aside the unlikely prospect that political deconfessionalization will be introduced, this proposal is the best solution for the Lebanese Christians’ fear of marginalization as well as the unhappy saga of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. It is important to recall that the 50-50 formula is itself a modification of an earlier 6:5 ratio of Christians to Muslims, which Taif changed due to shifting demographics. If shifting demographics prompted a change in the old system, further demographic shifts may well bring about a change in the current formula. 

Ultimately, it is difficult to object to a proposal that seeks to ground the 50-50 formula in reality, unless one objects to it in the first place, which is rare in Lebanese politics. If the notion of Lebanon as a country for its long-term residents, its expatriates, and persecuted Christians is not adopted, it is difficult to imagine that the 50-50 formula will be retained, that persecuted Christians, whether in Iraq today or elsewhere tomorrow, will be offered another option for a secure future in the region, or that the condition of Palestinians in Lebanon will be significantly ameliorated. 

 

Rayyan al-Shawaf is a freelance writer and reviewer based in Beirut. He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.