04 January 2011
The author of the condominium agreement in 1899, described the birth of the new country Sudan as a “child of opportunism” that might “eventually die.”
Only days remain before the referendum of Jan. 9, 2011. The ultimate right of self-determination will be given to ordinary South Sudanese; they will decide for the first time their destiny and the fate of Sudan. Most analysts and observers agree that the majority of South Sudanese will vote for independence and the dream of southern nationalists will finally come true. To describe the current situation in Sudan, pre-referendum, as uncertain doesn’t convey the reality; new adjectives need to be invented to reflect the magnitude of the dilemma. The implications of the separation for both North and South Sudan, for the region and for Africa in general are far-reaching.
The prospect of separation has never been a secret. The rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) has not minced words about separation since September 1991, when it announced in Torit, in East Equatoria in South Sudan, that independence and separation would be the likely outcome if there were no democratic and secular Sudan. So far, despite the peace agreement that was intended to make unity attractive, there is no democracy to speak of and no secularism in Sudan. Furthermore, the SPLM succeeded in bringing all opposition parties to agree on the issue of self-determination in what is known as the Asmara declaration of June 1995.
The breakthrough came in 2002, after high-level U.S. intervention in the Sudan peace process. At the time, the regime had its back against the wall, especially after 9/11. The Machakos protocol signed on July 20, 2002, between the government of Sudan and the SPLM emphasized the right of self-determination for South Sudan. However, eight months later the conflict in Darfur erupted.
The fate of Darfur is relevant to the issue of the South. The rebels of Darfur, inspired by the SPLM, called themselves the Sudan Liberation Movement. The grievances they raised were similar to those of South Sudan, including political and socio-economic marginalization. The SPLM supported them politically and militarily.
But the hastily concluded Darfur Peace Agreement of 2006 made things worse and is recognized now by most observers as a complete failure. Back in 2003, there were only two major rebel groups, the Sudan Liberation Movement and the Justice and Equality Movement. Since then, the Darfur insurgents have split into an array of competing factions, with as many as 30 rebel groups (many people have given up counting). This has rendered any deal with the government meaningless. Furthermore, peace talks in Doha, Qatar, that began in early 2009, between the government and the Liberation and Justice Movement led by El-Tijani El-Sissi, seem to have gone nowhere. Progress in the near future is not imaginable even among those who are hopelessly optimistic.
Violence, displacement and civilian deaths in Darfur have significantly increased in the last two months. In early September, Janjaweed forces attacked a village in North Darfur, executing 58 unarmed men and boys and wounding 86, according to the African Center for Justice and Peace Studies. From August through November, the government attacked populated areas in the Jebel Marra area in Darfur. The attacks resulted in civilian deaths and injuries, mass displacement and destruction of property.
On Nov. 14, Ibrahim Gambari, the head of the joint United Nations-African Union mission in Darfur, or UNAMID, raised the alarm in a press conference in Khartoum. He expressed fear that recent fighting between the Sudanese government and rebels in Darfur, as well as tensions along shared borders with South Sudan, had exacerbated the security situation in Darfur. He voiced fears that the “old alignment” between South Sudan and Darfur rebels could be “rekindled” and result in further complication of the situation in Darfur. More alarming, the Sudanese government accused the South Sudan army of aiding Justice and Equality rebels, while South Sudan accused the Sudanese Army of dropping bombs inside its territory in the course of aerial bombardments against Darfur rebels.
It is hard to believe that the political elites who currently rule Sudan and who miserably failed to respect the wishes of South Sudan for decades until millions had died and many more were displaced, will be able to resolve the problem of Darfur soon.
In a worst-case scenario, but not an exaggerated one, Sudan is likely to disintegrate as a country after the separation of the South, thereby sadly vindicating Lord Cromer’s cynical prophecy. But let us pretend to fool ourselves; maybe our politicians are doing reverse engineering: taking the country apart to see how it works and then reassembling it.
Ahmed Elzobier is a Sudan Tribune journalist and Darfurian human rights activist. This
commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter.
Copyright The Daily Star 2011.
