LONDON: The World Gold Council has released its Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025 report, which reveals that gold's remarkable H1 performance coincided with the US dollar's worst start to a year since 1973, a shift which re-defined global investment flows.

Gold has continued its record-setting pace, rising 26% in US dollar terms in the first half of 2025 – and reaching double-digit returns across currencies. A combination of a weaker US dollar, rangebound rates and a highly uncertain geoeconomic environment has resulted in strong investment demand.

Gold closed out the first half of the year as one of the top-performing major asset classes, rising 26% over the period. It recorded 26 new all-time highs (ATHs) in H1 2025, having broken through 40 new ATHs in 2024.

The report said gold surged 26% in H1 2025, outperforming equities, bonds, and other major asset classes. This was driven by a weaker US dollar, rangebound interest rates and intensifying geoeconomic uncertainty, fuelling strong investment demand.

Using its Gold Valuation Framework, the WGC outlines three potential trajectories for H2:
Base case: modest upside (0–5%) as normalisation continues.
Bull case: a further 10–15% rise if economic conditions worsen.
Bear case: potential 12–17% pullback if trade risks ease significantly