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Feb 04 2012

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WSJ(2/4) Syria Resolution on Hold by Russia

   (From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL) 
   By Joe Lauria and Charles Levinson 

As the diplomatic efforts came to a head, deadly violence spread in Syria. Thousands of people in several different cities clashed with government forces after joining anti-government protest marches following Friday prayers, according to opposition activists and videos posted to YouTube. The day's death toll was estimated at near 100 people and rising.

Syrian forces unleashed a fierce assault with tank and artillery shells on anti-government neighborhoods in Homs, killing at least 58 in the heaviest assault there since last March, according to the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The clash was continuing well past midnight. At least another 32 people were killed elsewhere, including 11 soldiers, three children, and nine women, according to opposition activists.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov told the Interfax news agency on Friday that Moscow couldn't support the draft Security Council text, but didn't say whether it would abstain, veto or propose new amendments to the resolution.

Nations have turned to the Security Council to help end the 11-month-old clash between Syrian government forces and a popular uprising against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

The text agreed to by ambassadors in New York, shaped in part by a series of compromises made to appease Russia, supports an Arab League plan for a "Syrian-led political transition to a democratic, plural political system."

The plan stipulates that President Assad would hand power to a vice president during the transition period leading to democratic elections.

A specific call for Mr. Assad to step aside was cut from the draft under a veto threat by Moscow. Western diplomats said full support for the Arab League implies that Mr. Assad would step down, as that is a key part of the plan.

The passage of a Security Council resolution "has the potential to make a difference on the ground," said a Western diplomat. "This is a signal. A resolution with Russia and China on board supporting the Arab League plan is a huge signal to the people and leadership of Syria."

Mohammed al-Abdallah, a Washington-based Syrian opposition activist, said even a watered-down resolution would be better than no resolution at all or a veto, and would help keep much of the opposition committed to peaceful protest. Failure to pass any resolution would send the opposite message to ordinary Syrians, he said.

"A veto will send a message to the people that there is no longer any hope for progress in the political process and that will push more and more people to get armed," said Mr. Abdallah. "The Russians say a resolution will lead to civil war. We see the opposite is true. No resolution or a veto will lead to civil war."

If Moscow approves its ambassador's decision to support the text, it would be the first time that Russia would agree to serious U.N. criticism of the Assad regime.

Among changes already made at Moscow's insistence, a voluntary arms embargo on Syria was cut from the draft. Russia is a major arms supplier to Damascus. The draft also removed the threat of sanctions.

The resolution condemns "widespread and gross violations of human rights" by the Syrian government. It also condemns violence by the regime's opponents, and calls for human-rights violators to be held accountable.

It calls for the government to cease attacks on civilians, release political prisoners, withdraw military units from towns and cities, allow peaceful demonstrations and guarantee unhindered access for Arab League monitors and the news media.

The draft gives Syria 21 days to comply with demands, after which the council would consider additional measures.

"Everyone around the table said we were all on an ambassadorial level committed to this text," the Western diplomat said. "Of course Moscow has to give a green light and we don't know when that will happen."

The diplomat said that perhaps it might be Russia's "last opportunity to adjust their Syria policy and come into the fold of common understanding."

On Friday, fresh body counts rolled in from activists in cities around the country, a now daily and gruesome routine underscoring the government's failure to tamp down the opposition.

Friday's protests were dubbed "Hama Forgive Us," in honor of the 30th anniversary of a 1982 crackdown on a Muslim Brotherhood uprising in the city that left between 10,000 and 25,000 dead, according to Amnesty International. In Hama itself, government forces opened fire Friday on demonstrators as helicopters whirled overhead, according to activists, who said one person was killed.

Homs has seen some of the heaviest fighting; its proximity to Lebanon has facilitated the flow of smuggled weapons and made it one of the few cities where citizens have been able to arm themselves in significant numbers, according to activists.

In recent weeks, the numbers of Syrian soldiers defecting to the opposition camp in Homs have steeply increased, according to activists, which could be why the government decided to ramp up its assault on the city. The Syrian regime also likely wants to avoid losing control of border territory, which could allow rebel forces a base from which to organize operations.

"We will see real civil war in Homs," said the Observatory's director. "In the coming hours you will see total war between Sunnis and Allawites in the city. Too many people have been killed and people will want to take revenge."

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-02-12 0733GMT