HC Securities & Investment assured that headline inflation continued to decelerate for the third consecutive month from its high level in May at 14.1%, with August monthly inflation coming in lower than our expected 1% m-o-m.

Economist and banking analyst at HC, Monette Doss said, “We see inflationary pressures largely subsiding following the July subsidy cuts. Yearly inflation dropped below 9% y-o-y, well within the CBE target of 9% (± 3%) in 4Q20, providing room for the CBE to proceed with monetary easing to stimulate economic growth and stock market activity. Moreover, in the global context of monetary easing, with the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting its deposit rate by 10bps to -0.5% last week, Egyptian treasuries continue to provide attractive return and encourage carry trade. That said, we expect the CBE to cut rates by 100 bps in its upcoming meeting.”

It is worth mentioning that the Central bank of Egypt’s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its last meeting on 22 August 2019 reduced policy rates by 150 bps after keeping them unchanged for 3 consecutive meetings since the last 100 bps rate cut in February 2019. Egypt's annual headline inflation decelerated to 7.5% in August from 8.7% in the previous month, with monthly inflation reflecting a 0.7% monthly price increase compared to 1.8% in the previous month, according to data published by the CBE. Egypt’s annual core inflation also decelerated to 4.9% in August from 5.9% in the previous month, with the monthly core CPI decreasing 0.36% compared with an increase of 0.11% in July, central bank data showed.

Ends

About HC SI:

HC Securities & Investment (HC) is a leading investment bank in Egypt and the MENA region. Since its inception in 1996, HC has utilized its relationship-driven insights, local and regional market knowledge, and industry-specific expertise and strong execution capabilities to provide its clients with a wide range of services in investment banking, asset management, securities brokerage, research, custody, online trading and private equity through its offices in Egypt and the UAE (DIFC). HC Investment Banking has an outstanding track record of advising leading corporates in Egypt and the MENA region on M&A, capital market, and financing transactions in excess of USD5bn. HC Asset Management, winner of the 2018 MENA Fund Manager Awards, now manages 14 mutual funds for commercial banks and portfolios for institutions and sovereign wealth funds with assets under management in excess of EGP6bn. HC Brokerage is ranked among the top brokers in Egypt and provides a wide array of services, including research and online trading to institutional and retail clients.

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