BENGALURU - India's Sensex stock index may hit 80,000 by the end of next year if the country is included in global bond indexes and prices of commodities such as oil and fertilizers drop sharply, Morgan Stanley analysts said.
The inclusion could result in nearly $20 billion of inflows over the subsequent 12 months, the brokerage said, while making a bull case for a 30% chance of the blue-chip index hitting the number.
India's long wait to win inclusion in JPMorgan's influential emerging market local currency debt index was set to be pushed out into next year, Reuters reported earlier this year. The Wall Street bank said in October that India is on the radar for an inclusion.
Indian markets have defied weakness seen in Asian peers this year, with the Sensex closing at a new peak of 62,504.8 earlier in the day.
As of Monday close, the index has gained 7.3% so far this year, compared with a 22.46% slump in MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan.
The brokerage also sees a 50% chance of the Sensex hitting 68,500 by the end of next year, assuming that the effects of the Ukraine-Russia conflict do not spill over into 2023, domestic growth continues its strong path and the United States does not slip into a protracted recession.
"India is likely to have better growth than most parts of (emerging markets), a sustained domestic bid, a relatively strong macro environment plus light positioning by foreign portfolio investors," the brokerage said in a note dated Sunday.
(Reporting by Rama Venkat and Chris Thomas in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva)