India does not expect inflation to rise substantially from a jump in global crude oil prices ​triggered by the ⁠war in the Middle East, as domestic price levels remain near the ‌lower end of the central bank's tolerance band, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday.

Oil prices ​surged about 26% in early trade to their highest since July 2022 after Iran named ​Mojtaba Khamenei ​as successor to his father Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in air strikes by Israel and the United States more ⁠than a week ago. Major Middle Eastern oil producers have cut supply because they cannot safely send shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to refiners worldwide.

Mojtaba's appointment comes after U.S. President Donald Trump earlier rejected him as a candidate to ​be Iran's new supreme ‌leader, and ⁠Israel saying it ⁠would target whoever leads Iran.

Global oil prices, including India's crude basket, had been falling for a ​year until conflict escalated in the region on February ‌28, Sitharaman said in a written reply in ⁠parliament.

The Indian basket rose from $69.01 a barrel at end-February to $80.16 a barrel by March 2, the reply said.

The government said the impact on consumer prices would be limited for now.

"Given that India's inflation is near the lower bound, the impact on inflation is not estimated to be substantial at this point," Sitharaman said.

January's retail inflation was 2.75%, close to the bottom of the Reserve Bank of India's 2%–6% target range.

The RBI's October 2025 Monetary ‌Policy Report estimated that a 10% increase in crude prices could ⁠lift inflation by about 30 basis points, assuming full ​pass-through to domestic fuel rates, she said.

"However, the medium-term impact of the global crude oil price rise on inflation depends on several factors, including exchange rate movements, global ​demand and ‌supply situation, monetary policy transmission, the state of general inflation, and ⁠the extent of the indirect ​pass-through," Sitharaman added.

(Reporting by Sarita Chaganti Singh; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)