State capture, cyber threats push Africa into a new era of criminal complexity

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Africa is facing a complex and rapidly evolving security challenge, where entrenched state-linked criminal networks intersect with an expanding cyber-enabled criminal ecosystem and transnational syndicate operations, warn experts.

According to the newly released Africa Organised Crime Index 2025, persistent economic vulnerabilities and high youth unemployment continue to fuel this convergence, creating fertile ground for both traditional and digital criminal activity.

The report reveals that while Africa’s most widespread criminal markets in 2025 are financial crimes, human trafficking, non-renewable resource crimes, counterfeit goods, and arms trafficking, Africa is entering a new era of criminal complexity.

In several countries, officials, political elites, and security actors implicated in corruption or illicit trade now exploit digital systems to conceal transactions, launder proceeds, or coordinate networks with greater anonymity.

At the same time, cybercriminals benefit from the protection, gaps, or complicity created by weak or captured state institutions. This creates a dangerous feedback loop, state-embedded actors provide cover, access, and impunity, while digital tools amplify the scale, reach, and sophistication of their activities.

The result is a hybrid criminal ecosystem, rooted in traditional patronage networks but powered by modern cyber-enabled methods, that is harder to detect, disrupt, or prosecute, and is rapidly reshaping organised crime across the continent.

Generally, since 2023, financial crimes and the counterfeit goods trade have grown fastest, mirroring global trends.

The Index shows that criminal markets vary sharply across the continent. East Africa records high levels of human trafficking, arms trafficking, and human smuggling. In North Africa, financial crimes and the cannabis trade dominate, placing the region among the highest globally.

Most dominant threatState-embedded criminal actors remain the most dominant threat across Africa, with their influence rated “severe” in nearly half of all countries. This level of penetration underscores how deeply criminal interests have taken root within state structures, from political elites and security officials to bureaucratic networks, blurring the line between public authority and illicit enterprise.

The experts warn that such embeddedness not only enables criminal markets to thrive but also makes reform efforts significantly harder, as the institutions meant to enforce the law are often part of the problem.

The Index also highlights the growing presence of foreign criminal groups, particularly in West Africa, where their influence is “significant to severe” in nearly every country, driven largely by transnational cocaine networks and the involvement of private military companies in illicit activities.

Most alarming trendBut the rise of cybercrime is emerging as one of the continent’s most alarming trends. Africa’s rapid digital expansion has opened new avenues for criminal actors to diversify traditional illicit markets and grow entirely new ones, from online financial fraud to ransomware.

Cyber-dependent crime is rising sharply in Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria, with four out of five African subregions reporting increases. These crimes exploit weak regulatory frameworks, inconsistent law enforcement capacity, and gaps in cybersecurity infrastructure.

The report notes that digital fraud schemes are becoming increasingly sophisticated, targeting individuals, businesses, and governments with alarming precision.

The experts warn that even Africa’s stronger democracies are not immune. Weak oversight and gaps in election financing create openings for both state-linked and cyber-enabled criminal actors.

Rapid digitalisation, while expanding economic opportunities, has outpaced institutional safeguards, leaving millions of new internet users exposed to exploitation.

Transnational syndicates increasingly exploit these gaps, using sophisticated digital tools to orchestrate scams, money laundering, and cross-border ransomware attacks.“Cybercrime and digital fraud are among the continent’s most pervasive emerging threats,” the report notes. “Even countries with stronger democratic institutions are not immune, as weak institutional oversight and gaps in election financing leave openings for infiltration.”Digital criminal enterprisesThe youth demographic, digitally literate but economically vulnerable, is especially exposed. Many young people become victims of online schemes, while others are unwittingly recruited into cyber-enabled networks offering quick financial returns.

Traditional state-linked criminal networks deepen the challenge. In many countries, these networks are intertwined with political and business elites, leveraging long-standing influence to sustain illicit activities.

Economic hardship exposes communities to coercion, bribery, and extortion, creating an environment where both physical and digital criminal enterprises thrive.

The analysts described this as a “compounding crisis.” State-linked criminal networks erode governance, cybercrime exploits technological gaps, and both threats increasingly transcend borders.

Regions experiencing conflict, insurgency, and violent extremism are especially vulnerable. The report notes that many of the countries with the highest criminality scores are those already mired in instability, where weak institutions allow both organised crime and cyber-enabled threats to flourish unchecked.

Democracies generally show stronger resilience due to institutional checks and civic engagement. Yet even they struggle with election financing loopholes and weak oversight mechanisms that allow criminal actors, particularly digital ones, to infiltrate political and economic systems with little accountability.

The broader economic context compounds the crisis. High unemployment, inequality, and limited safety nets increase communities’ vulnerability to criminal influence.

For many young people, the lure of quick money through online schemes outweighs perceived risks, feeding the growth of cybercrime.

The experts note that cross-border cooperation to fight these crimes remains limited, despite the increasingly transnational nature of digital crime.“Many countries lack the technical capacity to investigate or prosecute sophisticated schemes, while regional coordination mechanisms are still developing. Without collective action, cyber-enabled criminal networks will continue to exploit fragmented systems, especially in fragile economies,” says the index.

The experts argue that addressing Africa’s dual criminal challenge requires a multi-pronged approach, stronger institutions, tighter regulatory and oversight mechanisms, better digital literacy and cybersecurity infrastructure, and expanded economic opportunities for youth.

Regional cooperation, including shared intelligence, harmonised laws, and joint investigations, is essential to counter cross-border threats.