Cairo – Standard Chartered Global Research (“SC Global Research”) believes that global growth in 2026 is set to remain firm at 3.4%, unchanged from 2025. In its yearly Global Focus look ahead at the world economy, it highlights that resilience at the headline level masks important shifts in the composition of growth. For many economies, 2026 is expected to be a year of transition, with fiscal policy taking on a greater role as monetary easing cycles end, and investment‑led activity increasingly replacing external demand as the key driver of expansion.

Most central banks are nearing the end of their rate‑cutting cycles as disinflation slows, and policymakers aim to maintain rate differentials with the US Federal Reserve. Against this evolving backdrop, Egypt stands out as a market where stabilisation efforts, policy reforms and improving investor sentiment are shaping a more constructive outlook for 2026.

SC Global Research expects Egypt to enter 2026 with a noticeably stronger macroeconomic footing, supported by firm FX inflows, improving external balances and tangible progress on structural reforms. Over the past two years, Egypt has undergone a significant policy adjustment cycle that is now translating into clearer signs of stabilisation and recovery, particularly across the external and monetary fronts. Continued inflows from GCC partners and long‑term investors, alongside proceeds from the government’s privatisation programme, have reinforced confidence and supported the rebuilding of net foreign assets. This backdrop has contributed to a more orderly FX environment, with SC Global Research forecasting USD/EGP at 47.5 (49.0 prior) by end‑Q1 2026 and around 49.0 (51.0 prior) by end‑2026, reflecting expectations of gradually strengthening market dynamics.

As global price pressures ease, Egypt is expected to benefit from a sharp disinflation trend. Inflation is projected to fall to around 11% by June 2026, helped by moderating commodity prices, improved domestic supply conditions and the fading impact of earlier currency adjustments. This decrease is anticipated to give the Central Bank of Egypt flexibility for further monetary‑policy easing, supporting business sentiment and reducing financing pressures on corporates. Meanwhile, the broader growth picture is set to improve, with real GDP rising to 4.5% in FY26, driven by stronger activity in trade, manufacturing and hydrocarbons. Tourism inflows and stable Suez Canal revenues are expected to contribute to this recovery as regional logistical disruptions ease and confidence gradually returns.

Providing perspective on the domestic outlook, Mohammed Gad, CEO and Head of Coverage, Standard Chartered Egypt, said: “Egypt enters 2026 on a much stronger macroeconomic foundation. Resilient foreign‑exchange inflows continued progress on structural reforms, and an improving investment climate are helping stabilise the economy and restore predictability. With inflation easing and external balances strengthening, we expect confidence to build further across the private sector, unlocking new opportunities for growth and long‑term investment.”

This trajectory is further supported by expectations of an upcoming USD 2.5bn disbursement under the IMF Extended Fund Facility in early 2026, which is set to reinforce FX reserves and sustain the reform programme’s momentum. Together, these developments position Egypt to navigate the challenges of the global environment with greater resilience, while laying the groundwork for a more stable and investment‑friendly year ahead.

For further information please contact:
Wasim Ben Khadra (WBK)
Cluster Head of Corporate Affairs, Brand and Marketing (CABM)

Standard Chartered
Email: Wasim.benkhadra@sc.com
Address: Dubai International Financial Centre
7th floor, Building One, Gate Precinct
PO Box 999, Dubai, UAE
www.sc.com

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