⁠The world may be already ‌drifting towards the International Monetary Fund's "adverse ​scenario" forecast of weaker 2.5% global growth ​in 2026 even ​as it released on Tuesday a more benign reference ⁠forecast of 3.1% growth, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Gourinchas told a news conference that the reference forecast ​assumes ‌that the ⁠conflict is ⁠resolved quickly and that energy prices normalize ​in the second ‌half of 2026, ⁠but acknowledged that the war's developments are fluid and changing daily. He said the reference forecast was "not quite yet" irrelevant.

"I would say that we are somewhere in between the reference scenario and the ‌adverse scenario," Gourinchas said. "And of course, every ⁠day that passes and ​every day that we have more disruption in energy, we are ​drifting ‌closer towards the adverse scenario."

(Reporting ⁠by David Lawder; ​Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)