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CANBERRA - Chicago wheat futures fell on Friday and were on track to end the week down 4% after a rally prompted by U.S. crop losses faltered and traders repositioned ahead of the Northern Hemisphere harvest season.
Corn futures dipped and were headed for a 1.8% weekly loss, while soybeans rose, but were roughly flat through the week.
The most-traded wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.5% at $6.20-3/4 a bushel, as of 0153 GMT, and down 10% from a peak in mid-May.
CBOT corn fell 0.2% to $4.55 a bushel and soybeans climbed 0.3% to $11.97-3/4 a bushel.
All three contracts have been rising in recent months but remain far below highs reached after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Wheat was holding just above its 50-day moving average, which provided technical support.
Northern Hemisphere nations produce most of the world's wheat and their harvest period is just beginning. While the U.S. crop has suffered from widespread drought, many other countries are on track for good harvests.
Rumours are circulating that China will lower its tariffs on U.S. grain and start buying. U.S. officials said this month China would buy $17 billion more U.S. farm goods but no confirmation has come from Beijing.
"Wheat is caught between the 'China lowers tariffs' rumour and falling export prospects through uncompetitive export values," StoneX analyst Bevan Everett wrote in a note to clients.
Traders also have their eye on U.S.-Iran peace talks. Apparent progress towards a deal has lowered oil prices, putting downward pressure on biofuel and its feedstocks, and raised the prospect of improved fertiliser supply from the Gulf.
High fertiliser costs due to the Iran war are likely to reduce global production over the coming year or more, Rabobank analysts said, forecasting CBOT wheat at $7.75 a bushel in the first quarter of 2027.
Others think prices could come down enough to prevent serious production losses.
"If the Strait (of Hormuz) can be reopened by mid to end of June, we do not expect global wheat prices to move considerably higher than current levels," said Commonwealth Bank analyst Dennis Voznesenski.





















