08 June 2005

Baath party congress

DAMASCUS: Bludgeoned by 40 years of authoritarian rule and riven by internal bickering, Syria's diverse and often fractious opposition is in a poor state to confront a Baathist regime undergoing a process of consolidation.

This week's Baath Party Congress is seen by analysts as an attempt by President Bashar Assad to stiffen domestic resolve against unrelenting international pressure and demonstrate that the regime is not about to collapse.

"It' a terrible situation," said Syrian political analyst Sami Moubayed. "There is no united organization or liberal opposition at this stage. Most of them have old and outdated mentalities.

With these people representing the opposition, the majority of Syrians prefer Bashar."

Yet a growing number of opposition figures recently have begun discussing ways of forging a united front, which could include Islamists and secular groups, to promote an effective program for change, one which the government cannot ignore.

"Any change which does not allow other forces to take part is not sound change," said Mohammad Sawan, secretary general of the opposition Gathering for Democracy and Unity. "Any reform process to be successful must have all forces, without exception including the Muslim Brotherhood."

But the secular opposition has long way to go to set aside its differences, even before holding dialogue with Islamists.

"Unless we can work out our differences, nothing will happen," said Ammar Abdel-Hamid, a Syrian social analyst and staunch critic of the regime. "We have had 40 years of authoritarianism which has decimated the political class. There are no professional politicians anymore."

On May 24, the Syrian authorities arrested all eight members of the Attasi forum, the last of the political salons that flourished during the Damascus Spring of 2001. Their detention stemmed from the public reading of a statement written by Ali Sadreddin Bayanuni, the exiled head of the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Islamists potentially represent the most powerful and organized opposition to Baathist rule, which is why more than two decades after its bloody war against the state, the Muslim Brotherhood remains banned in Syria and membership is punishable by death.

Although there is widespread suspicion of the Muslim Brotherhood because of its past association with violence, analysts say it would be a mistake to write off the strength of the Islamists.

"The regime needs to acknowledge the Islamists," Moubayed said. "Unless they are given an outlet to voice their frustrations they will move underground and present a challenge in Syria. This is a very strong danger."

The authorities have been holding their own dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood, issuing them with passports and allowing some to return home.

"The government believes that the Americans and the opposition are courting the Muslim Brotherhood and they won't allow that. They want the Muslim Brotherhood to themselves," said Joshua Landis, a professor of history who lives in Damascus and is author of the www.syriacomment.com blog.

The Kurdish community represents another source of trouble for Damascus which suspects it could be used by the U.S. in neighboring Iraq as a tool to undermine the regime.

Kurds blamed the authorities for the death last week of Mohammad Maashouk al-Khaznawi, 48, a Kurdish Islamic scholar who had pressed for Kurdish rights.

The government has blamed the cleric's murder on a personal dispute and two men admitted to the crime on state television last week.

Nonetheless, Khaznawi's death has led to violent protests in Qamishly in the Kurdish north-east stronghold with a policeman reportedly shot dead and Arab tribesmen looting shops belonging to Kurds.

But Damascus is using the carrot as well as the stick with the Kurds. It reportedly plans to launch a major economic development program in the Jazeera Province in the rural north-east in coordination with Turkey by increasing the flow of the Euphrates River to provide water for irrigation projects. Some 100,000 stateless Kurds are expected to be granted citizenship at the Baath Party Congress.

Still, not all reformists are operating outside the framework of the regime. One of the most effective campaigners is Ayman Abdel-Nour, editor of the influential All4Syria Internet newsletter and a member of the Baath Party.

Indeed, whatever reformist measures the Congress decides upon will be in no small part due to an unprecedented lobbying campaign undertaken by the 40-year-old Baathist reformer.

Abdel-Nour was infuriated that no reformers were among the 1,250 delegates elected to the congress by the Baath Party in April, even though they wrote the reports on economic and foreign policy which are being discussed at the event.

He used his e-mail newsletter to distribute a petition demanding their inclusion in the congress. He secured a little under 1,000 names of prominent party members, a figure, he says, that would have been even higher if more Baathists used the Internet and had e-mail addresses.

"We published every day the list and they [the authorities] realized that the people signing were not just taxi drivers, they were important people so they had to respond," he said. By the end of the campaign, the Baath Party had grudgingly accepted 150 reformist-minded delegates, including women, intellectuals, economists and law professors. This experience shows that the Baath Party can reform, he said, "but first we must have reformers."