The average price of battery electric vehicles (EV) will reach parity with fuel-driven cars of similar size and configuration by 2027, accelerating the global adoption of EVs, Gartner Inc. said in a new report.
However, power generation and network capacity have the potential to act as inhibiting factors to mass EV deployment regardless of price by 2030.
“Unless countries take actions to incentivize EV drivers to charge outside peak electricity consumption periods, the switch to EVs may put an additional strain on both the power generation capacity and the distribution infrastructure,” said Jonathan Davenport, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner.
According to Gartner, global battery electric vehicle (BEV) shipments are forecast to grow by 22.22% to 11 million units by 2023 from nine million in 2022. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are expected to grow at a slightly slower rate, from 3 million units in 2022 to 4 million units in 2023.
Gartner expected nearly 15 million battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars to be shipped worldwide in 2023, rising 19% year-on-year to 17.9 million units in 2024.
Overall, shipments of EVs - cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks - will total 18.5 million units in 2024, with electric car shipments making 97% of total EV shipments next year.
EVs in the GCC
Meanwhile, the Gulf countries, mainly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are at the forefront of adopting electric mobility.
The kingdom's Public Investment Fund (PIF) owns more than 60% of the California-based EV maker Lucid, which is building its first overseas production factory in Saudi Arabia. The government has agreed to buy up to 100,000 Lucid vehicles over the next decade.
In June, the Saudi Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources granted an industrial license to Ceer, the first local EV brand.
In 2022, the UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure announced the launch of the Global EV Market, signing several cooperation agreements with Etihad Water and Electricity, Bee’ah Group and the American University of Sharjah, as well as leading EV manufacturers and investors, including Audi, Siemens, BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, NEV Investment, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, and Porsche.
Moreover, the EV market is estimated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% between 2022 and 2028 in the UAE, Arthur D. Little (ADL), a management consultancy firm, said in a report published in September 2022.
In its used car market insights H1 2023 report, CARS24 said that EVs currently make up just over 1% of the UAE car market, but the switch to electric is clearly becoming a popular option with car buyers with the rapid rise in searches.
The UAE was ranked fourth in a global ranking of 50 nations for affordable EV charging infrastructure by evaluation service providers Compare the Market Australia.
(Editing by Brinda Darasha; email@example.com)