Tuesday, Mar 04, 2014


 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels: 


 
Futures:          BUND       GILT       EURIBOR   SHORT STG 
                  Mar        Jun        Dec       Dec 
Previous Close    145.26     110.17     99.730    99.250 
3 Day Trend       Bullish    Bullish    Bearish   Range 
Weekly Trend      Bullish    Bullish    Range     Range 
3rd Resistance    145.74     110.68     99.765    99.300 
2nd Resistance    145.42     110.36     99.755    99.280 
1st Resistance    145.29     110.25     99.745    99.260 
Pivot*            145.17     110.07     99.722    99.250 
1st Support       145.02     109.94     99.700    99.220 
2nd Support       144.85     109.79     99.690    99.190 
3rd Support       144.66     109.60     99.655    99.160

Intraday BUND: The corrective setback from Monday's contract high at 145.42 has limited scope while the intra-day upside gap at 144.66 remains intact. Last week's Market Profile chart also highlights strong support between 144.66 and 144.85, and only below 144.66 would give bears some control. The 145.42 high would come back into focus on a break above 145.29, threatening an uptrend extension towards 145.74 and 145.96.

Weekly chart BUND trend: Bullish.

Intraday GILT: Resistance at 110.36 has become key, keeping a lid on the upside for now. The corrective setback from Monday's contract high at 110.25 will look to test support at 109.79, but downside risk is limited to the 109.60 area, where single prints on last Friday's Market Profile chart coincide with former range highs that have reverted to support. A concerted wave of bull pressure is required to force a break above 110.36, which would signal completion of a three-month double-bottom base at 105.03/105.06 on the Equalized Active chart, opening 110.68 and 110.99 in the short-term.

Weekly chart GILT trend: Bullish.

Intraday EURIBOR December 2014: Room for a recovery to 99.745 should be allowed, having bounced from a low of 99.700. But the broader setback from last Thursday's high at 99.755 remains dominant, and the 99.690/99.700 lows are expected to come under pressure later during the week. That said, the four-week picture suggests a trading range between 99.690 and 99.765 is under development, and bulls will look to protect the 99.690 low resolutely. It would take a break above 99.745 would lift the tone sooner than expected, opening 99.755 and 99.765.

Weekly chart EURIBOR trend: Range.

Intraday SHORT STERLING December 2014: Support at 99.220 continues to define downside risk, offering scope for a recovery towards the Feb. 19 high at 99.280. That 99.280 high shields the early February peaks at 99.300 and the important November peak at 99.310. The downward consolidation phase from 99.280 is retracing some of the rally from the Feb. 14 low at 99.160, and a retest of 99.220 would threaten to extend the corrective bear wave towards 99.190.

Weekly chart SHORT STG trend: Range.

* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.

For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"

By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com

Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.

Data provided by CQG International Ltd.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-03-14 0702GMT