Goldman Sachs trimmed its second-quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent ​and U.S. crude ⁠to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, after the U.S. and Iran ‌agreed on a two-week ceasefire.

Previously, the bank forecast Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil ​prices to average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively.

Brent crude oil prices are down over ​11% so ​far this week amid hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ⁠ceasefire with Iran.

However, prices rose on Thursday on concerns that supply from the key Middle East producing region may not fully resume amid doubts about the ceasefire holding and as the crucial strait remains restricted.

Meanwhile, ​ANZ in ‌a note ⁠said that oil ⁠supply disruptions have materially tightened the global crude balance, shifting the market rapidly ​from early-year surplus to a sizeable deficit.

"We see ‌a credible risk that 1–2 mb/d (million barrel ⁠per day) of capacity may be permanently lost or limited, particularly from mature fields, constrained export systems and producers facing persistent sanctions or financing challenges," the bank said.

ANZ said the market is likely to require sustained prices above $100/bbl to ration demand and prompt stock drawdowns, if recovery stalls at this week's level, leaving deficits above 4–5 mb/d.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey ​in Bengaluru, editing by Deepa Babington and Lincoln Feast)