Malawians will go to the polls on Tuesday with President Lazarus Chakwera under pressure, accused of failing to deliver on promises that brought him to power five years ago. Chief among them was a rapid economic turnaround that critics say never came.

Fuel shortages, inflation, and joblessness dominate the run-up to the September 16 presidential, parliamentary, and local government elections. Opinion polls show former President Peter Mutharika, whom Chakwera defeated in the 2020 court-ordered rerun, capitalising on the incumbent’s faltering first term.

A former preacher, Chakwera pledged in 2019 to create one million jobs and lift Malawians out of poverty. Five years later, Malawi remains among the world’s four poorest nations, with more than 70 percent of the population living below the poverty line.

Output growth slowed further to 1.8 percent in 2023, hit by drought, floods, and foreign currency shortages. Since 2010, more than three million Malawians have fallen into poverty, World Bank says.

Inflation stands at about 30 percent, pushing basic goods out of reach for many. Motorists queue for hours or even days for fuel. Chakwera’s government has sought solutions but with little visible success.

Richard Kweitsu, a US-based academic, said that while the government blames Cyclone Freddy and droughts for the crisis, voters are unconvinced.“According to Afrobarometer surveys, economic management and food security have consistently ranked among Malawians’ top three concerns over the past decade,” he wrote in the Democracy in Africa blog. “The question now is whether they will hold Chakwera accountable for these persistent problems or give him credit for navigating global crises.”Kweitsu noted that recent polls in Senegal, Botswana, Mauritius, and Ghana showed incumbents losing power over economic grievances. In South Africa, the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994.“Voters are increasingly willing to punish leaders, who fail to deliver tangible improvements in living standards, regardless of external circumstances,” he said. “For Chakwera, the irony is palpable: he now represents the establishment he once challenged.”Voters will also test whether electoral reforms after the chaotic 2019 elections went far enough.

That year, the courts annulled Mutharika’s victory, leading to Chakwera’s win in 2020. Reforms since then included a 50 percent plus one threshold for the presidency, and changes to the Malawi Electoral Commission.

In August 2025, Parliament amended the law to let security, election, and party staff vote where they are deployed.

Analysts say transparency and fairness remain voter priorities after the irregularities of 2019. Zenge Simakoloyi of the Institute for Security Studies noted that economic issues will likely dominate.“Afrobarometer’s 2024 survey shows 50 percent of citizens identify food shortages or famine as the country’s top problem, followed by the rising cost of living and agriculture (both 28 percent) and health (26 percent),” he said.“In rural and peri-urban areas, six in 10 residents prioritise food security. Urban areas are more likely to cite inflation and economic management.“These findings underscore the gap between electoral reforms and citizens’ priorities around survival and livelihoods.“Most Malawians (76 percent) feel the country is going in the wrong direction, yet 63 percent say they trust the courts ‘somewhat’ to ‘a lot’, reflecting both scepticism and confidence in institutional mechanisms.”Analysts attribute the surge in popularity of President Chakwera’s main rival, Mutharika, to the country’s economic problems, with some believing that the 85-year-old former president would be safer than the incumbent.

An Institute of Public Opinion and Research survey in July gave him and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 43 percent support, compared to Chakwera’s Malawi Congress Party (MCP) 26 percent. None of the candidates is projected to cross the 50 percent plus one threshold, raising the prospect of a run-off.

Simakoloyi said the race would have been different had Vice President Saulos Chilima not died in a plane crash last year. The two had formed Tonse Alliance pact, in which Chakwera was to serve one term before handing the candidacy to Chilima in 2025.“In the absence of a youthful frontrunner and the dominance of familiar faces, there has been an increase in independent parliamentary candidates,” Simakoloyi said. “A record 260 independent candidates are contesting 229 seats, outnumbering established parties.”Civil society activist Owen Mwalubunju said neither of the frontrunners inspires confidence.“Chakwera and Mutharika have both held the highest office. Their records are clear: no vision, no transformation, no future. The choice between them is not a choice – it is a trap,” he said. “Malawians are not voting for change. They are voting for continued collapse.”Other contenders include former president Joyce Banda, current Vice President Michael Usi, and ex-central bank governor Dalitso Kabambe.

Presidential results are due by September 24. If no candidate wins outright, a run-off must be held within 60 days. Parliamentary results are expected by September 30.

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