(The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) 

LAUNCESTON, Australia - India's crude oil imports from Russia are on track to climb to a ‍six-month high in December as the world's ‍third-biggest buyer defies U.S. sanctions on Moscow's oil producers.

Crude arrivals from Russia are expected to rise to 1.85 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, ​from 1.83 million bpd in November, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

India's December imports from Russia are likely to have risen for a third consecutive month and are the highest ⁠since June's 2.10 million bpd.

While the South Asian nation's appetite for Russian crude has not been diminished by the U.S. sanctions against top Russian producers Lukoil and Rosneft, what has changed is the ⁠mix of ‌buyers.

The largest chunk of Russian oil being imported by India in December is being offloaded at Vadinar port, with Kpler estimating arrivals of about 658,000 bpd, up from 561,000 bpd in November and above the average for 2025 of 431,000 bpd.

Vadinar port serves the refinery of the same ⁠name, which is owned by Nayara Energy, in which Rosneft owns a 49.13% stake.

The refinery is capable of processing 405,000 bpd, meaning that its current level of imports from Russia is well in excess of its capacity.

This in turn suggests that Nayara is storing crude in the hope that the sanctions against Russian oil and refined products are eased, or that enough buyers will be prepared to ignore them.

It's likely that the current rate of imports from Russia to Vadinar cannot be sustained as the ⁠refinery will run out of storage space, given that ​it currently has capacity to hold about 20 million barrels of both crude and products.

RELIANCE CUTS

While Nayara has ramped up imports from Russia, India's major privately-owned refiner Reliance Industries has moved in the other direction.

It is ‍on track to import about 293,000 bpd from Russia in December through its port at Sikka on India's west coast, which supplies the 1.24 million bpd Jamnagar refinery complex.

This is down from 552,000 bpd in November ​and is well below the 826,000 bpd in June, which was the highest this year, according to Kpler data.

Reliance, which has a 500,000 bpd long-term deal with Rosneft, has said it will comply with U.S. and European sanctions, a move viewed as protecting its export flows to Europe and minimising the risk of legal action against the company.

But it increasingly appears that Reliance is the exception among Indian refiners, with state-owned companies accounting for about 904,000 bpd of imports from Russia in December, according to Kpler.

It would seem that the new U.S. sanctions, announced in October, have failed to cut India's imports from Russia, with India likely making the calculation that the discounts on offer are enough to outweigh any political fallout.

China is the only other major buyer of Russian crude, and it also is continuing to import at the same pace it has done for most of the year.

China's seaborne imports from Russia are expected to reach 1.36 million bpd in December, up from 1.22 million bpd in November and higher than the 1.22 million bpd average in 2025, according ⁠to Kpler data.

It's easy to leap to the conclusion that the array of sanctions on Russian crude ‌have failed to dent imports by China and India.

But while volumes have been largely unaffected, it's likely that China and India are demanding, and receiving, bigger discounts, meaning that Russia's revenue from oil sales will be declining.

Whether this is enough to keep further Western sanctions from being imposed is a risk factor that remains for the global crude market.

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The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)