PARIS: The European Commission on Thursday cut slightly its production forecast for the European Union's main wheat crop in 2025/26, but increased its stocks outlook as it saw more supplies left over from this season than previously anticipated.

Usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in the EU in 2025/26 was now projected at 126.3 million metric tons compared with 126.5 million in an initial outlook a month ago.

The forecast was still up sharply from a 12-year low of 111.7 million tons in 2024/25, the Commission's monthly supply and demand data showed.

Crop forecasters have been anticipating a rebound in EU wheat output given improved conditions compared with last year's rain-hit harvest, though unfavourable weather at the start of spring has caused some concern.

Forecast EU soft wheat stocks at the end of 2025/26 were increased to 8.5 million tons compared with 7.3 million forecast last month.

With the Commission leaving unchanged its forecasts of EU wheat exports and imports next season, the higher stocks projection reflected an increase in expected supplies at the end of this season.

Soft wheat stocks at the end of 2024/25 were now pegged at 10.7 million tons against 9.4 million forecast last month.

That in turn reflected a 1 million ton cut to expected 2024/25 exports to 24.0 million tons and a 0.5 million increase to projected imports to 7.5 million tons.

EU wheat exports this season have been curbed by stiff competition from the Black Sea region and a dire harvest in France, usually the EU's biggest wheat exporter.

In other cereal crops, the Commission kept unchanged its forecasts for 2025/26 usable production of barley and maize (corn) at 51.7 million and 65.0 million tons, respectively.

For rapeseed, the EU's main oilseed crop, the Commission trimmed its 2025/26 production forecast to 18.9 million from 19.0 million last month, still up sharply from 16.8 million this season.

Reuters