Nigeria may be standing at the edge of a renewed debt crisis unless it accelerates fiscal reforms, strengthens revenue mobilisation, and improves transparency in debt reporting.

This warning dominated discussions at the Capital Market Academics of Nigeria (CMAN) Q4 2025 Virtual Symposium.

The symposium, themed: “Nigeria’s Rising Debt Profile and Sustainability Imperatives,” brought together leading economists, policy analysts, and capital-market scholars, including Dr. Tope Fasua, Dr. Ibrahim Natagwandu, Prof. Bright Eregha, Dr. Musa Baba, and Professor Bongo Adi. The session was chaired by Prof. Wilfred Iyiegbunwe, moderated by financial journalist Nancy Nnaji, and hosted by CMAN President Prof. Uche Uwaleke.

In his opening remarks, Prof. Iyiegbunwe drew parallels between Nigeria’s current fiscal situation and the debt overhang tackled during the Obasanjo era under former finance minister Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

He cautioned that Nigeria could be “approaching a similar challenge,” citing weak revenue performance, rising refinancing costs, and the heavy burden of short-term borrowing.

Speakers noted that while Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains within global benchmarks, the debt service-to-revenue ratio, one of the world’s highest, poses a severe sustainability threat. Exchange-rate volatility, subsidy removal impacts, and incomplete debt data, particularly from extra-budgetary and private-sector liabilities, further cloud the nation’s fiscal outlook.

Participants agreed that Nigeria’s fundamental challenge is not the size of its debt but the country’s inability to generate adequate revenue. With tax revenue standing at just 10 percent of GDP, far below the African average of 20 percent, panelists argued that debt financing will remain strained unless domestic revenue mobilization is strengthened.

They welcomed recent government initiatives aimed at plugging revenue leakages, including the Revenue Assurance and Optimisation (RevOp) programme, the central billing system, and the Federal Treasury Receipts System, all designed to unify billing, enhance transparency, and improve tax compliance.

Speakers highlighted progress in fiscal reforms, such as the elimination of Ways-and-Means overdrafts, improved oil production transparency, recalibrating the domestic–external debt mix, and adoption of a more structured Medium-Term Debt Strategy (MTDS). The MTDS aims to lengthen debt maturities, reduce interest exposure, and focus borrowing on productive infrastructure.

However, they emphasised that deeper structural reforms are required to strengthen investor confidence, stabilise the macroeconomic environment, and reduce over-reliance on borrowing.

Expressing concern on the absence of a comprehensive national debt database, experts insisted that Nigeria must expand its debt reporting framework to include private-sector exposure and extra-budgetary liabilities to avoid surprises in the FX market and improve policy credibility.

The Panelists, therefore, called for strengthened project evaluation frameworks to ensure debt-funded projects deliver measurable economic value; scaling up of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure; deployment of innovative financing instruments such as Sukuk and Green Bonds.

They also advised the creation of an enabling environment that unlocks long-term capital and reduces business operating costs.

Experts concluded that Nigeria’s long-term fiscal stability hinges on driving productivity, expanding non-oil exports, and achieving sustained double-digit economic growth, factors essential to easing fiscal pressure and reducing poverty.

In her closing remarks, Prof. Maryam Abdul commended the scholars and practitioners for their extensive insights and urged continued collaboration as Nigeria navigates its evolving debt and revenue challenges.

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