Congolese travellers returning from Livingstone, Zambia, recently spent eight night hours crouched at Kenneth Kaunda International Airport waiting for a flight to Addis Ababa, where they would connect to Kinshasa, a journey of nearly 7,000km and more than 10 hours in the air.

 

Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) share a border, one traveller noted. A direct flight from Lusaka to Kinshasa would cover the 1,872km distance in under three hours. But no such route exists.

According to the African Civil Aviation Commission (Afcac), passenger traffic in destinations such as the DRC and much of Central Africa continues to lag behind other regions due to weaker infrastructure, limited market development and slow air service liberalisation.

The region also ranks poorly in the International Air Transport Association (IATA) connectivity index. The DRC – the highest placed in the region – ranks 18th, largely due to a lack of direct flights and limited fifth freedom rights, which lengthen journeys and slow economic integration.

Regional hubsBy contrast, eastern and southern Africa host some of the continent’s strongest aviation hubs. South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Angola are designated by IATA as regional hubs, reflecting relatively developed infrastructure and more liberalised aviation markets. These countries dominate intra-African air traffic.“By 2030, south and east Africa are projected to account for 57.4 percent of the total intra-African market, with West Africa closely following. North Africa’s growth remains constrained due to ongoing geopolitical challenges,” said Stephen Musa, air transport expert at the Dakar-based Afcac.

According to Afcac projections, intra-African traffic in southern Africa will reach 25.33 million passengers by 2030, up from 22.9 million today. Eastern Africa will rise to 19.2 million from the current 14.19 million.

North Africa is projected to record 13.19 million intra-African passengers by 2030, compared with 11.08 million today, while Central Africa will grow to 3.83 million from the current 2.9 million.

Open skiesAfcac officials shared the projections last week during a virtual training for media and industry practitioners on progress under the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM). Since the initiative was launched in 2018, intra-African connectivity has risen from 14.5 percent to about 23 percent.

Last week at ITB Berlin, the African Travel and Tourism Association (ATTA) released a white paper, Africa in the Air, projecting double-digit growth for Africa’s aviation sector this year.

Of the five key markets driving this expansion, three are in eastern and southern Africa. Across the continent, travellers had booked 182.4 million seats by the end of October, a 13.7 percent increase from last year.

Egypt leads with 30.9 million seats, followed by South Africa with 26.8 million. Morocco ranks third with 22.5 million seats, while Ethiopia and Kenya complete the top five with 17 million and 10.2 million seats respectively.

Connectivity pushThe ATTA report notes that the Addis Ababa and Nairobi hubs are driving eastern Africa’s growth, absorbing traffic that previously flowed through Middle Eastern hubs, which remain vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions.

This has helped make eastern Africa the continent’s fastest-growing aviation sub-region, with seat capacity rising 24.3 percent, outperforming both north and southern Africa

Reform monitoringAuditing reforms on airspace liberalisation is critical to building a unified aviation market that can support the African Continental Free Trade Area, said Robert Lisinge, director for technology and infrastructure at the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).

Speaking last month, Lisinge called for stronger monitoring of the Yamoussoukro Decision, the policy framework underpinning SAATM, to push countries that have been slow to implement the agreement.

Officials say Afcac has adopted ECA monitoring tools to track the performance of countries implementing SAATM commitments. The move followed a 2023 review that found many member states had signed onto the initiative but were slow to implement reforms.

Cost pressuresThe intra-African air travel market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.7 percent between 2025 and 2030, above the global industry average.

However, airfares across Africa remain high due to structural constraints in the aviation ecosystem rather than simply airline pricing.

Jet fuel in Africa costs 20 percent to 30 percent more than the global average. Taxes, fees and charges account for 30 to 35 percent of ticket prices, roughly double the levels in Europe. Fragmented markets, restricted market access, visa barriers, underserved routes and limited economies of scale further push up the cost of flying across the continent.

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