01 April 2012
THE MSM index declined 4.49 per cent in the week ended March 29, closing at 5,690. Index heavyweights such as Omantel, Nawras and Raysut Cement turned ex-dividend during the week, which impacted the index performance since cash dividends are not adjusted in the index calculation.

Amongst the three sectors, the industry sector led declines of 4.18 per cent for the week, followed by the financial sector falling 3.97 per cent and the services sector falling 3.45 per cent. Market turnover during the week was 16.5 per cent higher at RO23 million compared to the previous week.

Bank stocks dropped notably after the Central Bank of Oman lowered ceiling on personal loan rates from 8 per cent to 7 per cent with effect from today. However, this move may not have a major impact in the medium-term as banks may see faster personal loan growth,

Global markets are seen consolidating gains made in recent weeks while latest economic data from Japan, Germany showed strength. However, China and India are expected to see some deceleration in their GDP growth rates. United States consumer confidence continues to improve but durable goods orders in February have caused some disappointment.

The US Fed may offer more stimulus if US economic growth fails to gain momentum during the year according to the Federal Reserve chairman. The US government has indicated that it may release oil from its strategic reserves in order to stem rising oil prices. Oil poses a major challenge to the global economy, especially to Asian economies such as China and India GCC market outlook
In the region, Saudi Arabia and Qatar markets were the top performers in the previous week gaining 3.2 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively. Banking, petrochemicals, food and real estate sectors outperformed in Saudi Arabia while industrials and services stocks ended higher in Qatar.

Trading volumes on the Dubai Financial Market have increased eight-fold this year on expectations of the Emirate rebounding from its financial crisis, while value of shares traded in Saudi Arabia has more than doubled. Dubai's GDP is expected to grow 5 per cent in 2012 according to its government. Home sales grew 67 per cent year-on-year by value in the fourth quarter of 2011, tourism revenue expected to maintain a strong momentum going forward, Dubai bond yields eased which have all helped in improving investor confidence in Dubai.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), global food prices may remain sticky in the coming months as demand from China coupled with a lower corn, soya output from South America could weigh on prices. If such a scenario persists, it could be negative for food manufacturers such as Almarai and Savola as it impacts their cost of production.

We are positive on Qatar Telecom (Qtel) which reported a strong overstating performance in the fourth quarter of 2011. Net profit rose 33 per cent year-on-year to 603 million Qatari riyal while revenue increased 14 per cent year-on- year. The group did well at operating level in all its key markets such as Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria and Tunisia.

The group has acquired necessary regulatory approvals to launch data rich services such as LTE and FTTH in Qatar in 2012. Its Iraq subsidiary, Asiacell is likely to float an initial public offering (IPO) soon. Qtel paid a cash dividend of 3 riyal a share and a 30 per cent stock dividend for 2011. Besides, its shareholders can increase their holding by subscribing to its forthcoming 2:5 rights issue at an attractive price of 75 riyal per share.

Disclaimer: This column expresses only the views of the contributor and investing in stocks carries risk of financial loss for which the contributor is in no way liable.


THE MSM index declined 4.49 per cent in the week ended March 29, closing at 5,690. Index heavyweights such as Omantel, Nawras and Raysut Cement turned ex-dividend during the week, which impacted the index performance since cash dividends are not adjusted in the index calculation.

Amongst the three sectors, the industry sector led declines of 4.18 per cent for the week, followed by the financial sector falling 3.97 per cent and the services sector falling 3.45 per cent. Market turnover during the week was 16.5 per cent higher at RO23 million compared to the previous week.

Bank stocks dropped notably after the Central Bank of Oman lowered ceiling on personal loan rates from 8 per cent to 7 per cent with effect from today. However, this move may not have a major impact in the medium-term as banks may see faster personal loan growth, Global markets are seen consolidating gains made in recent weeks while latest economic data from Japan, Germany showed strength. However, China and India are expected to see some deceleration in their GDP growth rates. United States consumer confidence continues to improve but durable goods orders in February have caused some disappointment.

The US Fed may offer more stimulus if US economic growth fails to gain momentum during the year according to the Federal Reserve chairman. The US government has indicated that it may release oil from its strategic reserves in order to stem rising oil prices. Oil poses a major challenge to the global economy, especially to Asian economies such as China and India GCC market outlook
In the region, Saudi Arabia and Qatar markets were the top performers in the previous week gaining 3.2 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively.

Banking, petrochemicals, food and real estate sectors outperformed in Saudi Arabia while industrials and services stocks ended higher in Qatar.

Trading volumes on the Dubai Financial Market have increased eight-fold this year on expectations of the Emirate rebounding from its financial crisis, while value of shares traded in Saudi Arabia has more than doubled. Dubai's GDP is expected to grow 5 per cent in 2012 according to its government. Home sales grew 67 per cent year-on-year by value in the fourth quarter of 2011, tourism revenue expected to maintain a strong momentum going forward, Dubai bond yields eased which have all helped in improving investor confidence in Dubai.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), global food prices may remain sticky in the coming months as demand from China coupled with a lower corn, soya output from South America could weigh on prices. If such a scenario persists, it could be negative for food manufacturers such as Almarai and Savola as it impacts their cost of production.

We are positive on Qatar Telecom (Qtel) which reported a strong overstating performance in the fourth quarter of 2011. Net profit rose 33 per cent year-on-year to 603 million Qatari riyal while revenue increased 14 per cent year-on- year. The group did well at operating level in all its key markets such as Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria and Tunisia.

The group has acquired necessary regulatory approvals to launch data rich services such as LTE and FTTH in Qatar in 2012. Its Iraq subsidiary, Asiacell is likely to float an initial public offering (IPO) soon. Qtel paid a cash dividend of 3 riyal a share and a 30 per cent stock dividend for 2011. Besides, its shareholders can increase their holding by subscribing to its forthcoming 2:5 rights issue at an attractive price of 75 riyal per share.

Disclaimer: This column expresses only the views of the contributor and investing in stocks carries risk of financial loss for which the contributor is in no way liable.

© Times of Oman 2012