Traffic on intra-African air routes is currently almost as high as on flights connecting the continent to the Middle East, but Boeing projects that the latter will grow far more strongly over the next two decades.

 

In 2024, intra-African air travel recorded about 77 billion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), a measure of how many paying passengers airlines carry over a given distance, highlighting steady demand on regional routes despite long-standing connectivity gaps and high operating costs.

The Africa–Middle East corridor was only slightly ahead, at 78 billion RPKs, placing both among the world’s smallest air travel markets, far below major corridors such as Africa–Europe, which reached 199 billion RPKs last year.

But this trend is shifting. In its latest Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), plane manufacturer Boeing forecasts that both intra-African and Africa–Middle East routes will climb into the world’s 20 largest over the next two decades.

By 2044, Boeing expects Africa–Middle East traffic to rise by 301 percent to 313 billion RPKs, surpassing several major routes, including those within the Middle East.

Intra-African flights will also surge, growing by 273 percent to reach 287 billion RPKs and overtaking corridors such as China–Northeast Asia and North America–South America.

Experts say the surge in flights to the Middle East will, in fact, be fuelled by Africa’s internal connectivity boom, which will create greater demand for long-haul links beyond the continent.“Travel to the Middle East is often to take advantage of the connectivity to onward destinations,” said Anbessie Yitbarek, vice president for sales and marketing for Africa at Boeing, in an interview with The EastAfrican.“Successful growth of regional African networks will create the possibility of more long-haul onward destinations from African hubs utilising capable and efficient widebody aeroplanes.”Yet many of these long-distance flights are expected to be operated by non-African carriers. African airlines are projected to buy far more single-aisle aircraft for short-haul routes than widebodies suited for intercontinental travel.

Over the next two decades, Boeing projects that African airlines will acquire 1,205 new aircraft, of which 865, or 72 percent, will be narrow-bodies, while only 240 will be widebodies.

Yitbarek argues that this reflects the realities of regional integration, which is driving up demand for smaller aircraft across the continent.

This leaves vast parts of the continent underserved or entirely disconnected from efficient commercial air service,” he said.“Lack of aeroplanes with the right combination of size, efficiency and capability hinders frequency and growth.”Last year, for the first time, domestic passengers outnumbered travellers on intra-African routes, according to the latest African Airlines Association report derived from disclosures by 30 carriers, highlighting the growing strength of home markets.

Even as these segments expand, Europe remains the most popular destination for travellers leaving the continent. Africa–Europe traffic stood at 199 billion RPKs in 2024, and Boeing expects this to rise to 399 billion by 2044.

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