East Africa’s fuel crisis is unlikely to ease quickly, even after the recent two-week ceasefire in the Gulf.

 

The situation arises from the region’s reliance on imports of refined oil products, with most supplies coming from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.

Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda had assured consumers of sufficient reserves, but these may only last until mid-May.

Kenya was plunged into controversy after some government officials imported fuel from the Gulf in defiance of government-to-government arrangements. Some petrol stations began rationing fuel amid public anticipation of higher pump prices next week.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, as in Kenya and Tanzania, the government sets fuel prices in coordination with oil companies. While this policy is designed to ensure market stability, it comes at a high cost: Governments spend millions of dollars cushioning consumers.

Speaking in Dodoma on Wednesday, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan ordered car pooling for senior bureaucrats in government activities, including shared bus rides. The directive, beginning in her office, seeks to address spiralling fuel costs due to the Middle East conflict.

The situation in Rwanda is similar. Jean Maurice Uwera, deputy government spokesperson, cautioned: “To avoid rationing measures by petrol stations and limits on litres consumed during this Middle East conflict, we need to reduce travel and save the fuel we have.”She added that the presidential convoy would comprise an escort car, a police vehicle, and a reserve car, with everyone else travelling in the bus.

It was one of several steps taken recently to address fuel costs. Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (Ewura) director‑general James Mwainyekule was dismissed a day after the agency announced substantial hikes in official capped prices from 1 April, contradicting government assurances that the country had enough fuel to last until mid‑May.

On Tuesday, the warring sides in the Gulf crisis signalled a two‑week ceasefire, but the actual flow of oil from the Strait of Hormuz—where most East African countries, including Tanzania, source refined petroleum products—was unlikely to resolve immediate shortages.

Even after the ceasefire, it may take at least three weeks for new supplies to reach East African shores, with prices expected to rise.

In Tanzania, retail fuel costs rose more than 30 percent overnight to record levels of Tshs3,820 ($1.53) per litre for petrol, Tsh3,806 ($1.52) for diesel, and Tsh3,684 ($1.48) for kerosene, a basic cooking and lighting fuel for many low‑income households. In some inland regions, prices surpassed Tsh4,000 ($1.60).

The announcement immediately raised questions about justification, as the available reserves had been purchased at global prices prevailing before the closure of the Iran‑controlled Strait of Hormuz in early March.

According to official figures released in late March, Tanzania had sufficient reserves of petrol until the end of April, diesel until mid‑May, and aviation fuel for three months (91 days) to June, with additional shipments for May, June, and July already in transit.

On Wednesday, President Samia said that despite Ewura’s price increases, fuel remained cheaper in Tanzania than in neighbouring countries.

In Kinshasa, since 2022, in the wake of the Russia–Ukraine war, the government has repeatedly intervened financially to preserve price stability.

Figures from the Congolese Ministry of the Economy show that in 2023 the government paid $288 million to oil companies to keep petrol below $1.50 per litre. Striking this balance proved difficult between 2022 and 2024, a period marked by constant fluctuations. Petrol stations raised prices six times, in line with agreements reached with the government.

In 2024, the amount disbursed fell significantly following adjustments and the exposure of fraudulent practices within the subsidy system. Only $31 million was paid to oil companies that year.

Despite being costly and difficult to sustain, this system allows the DRC to maintain some of the lowest fuel prices in Africa. In 2026, a litre of fuel costs 2,440 Congolese francs (around $1.05). By comparison, petrol prices stand at around $1.50 per litre in Congo‑Brazzaville, Cameroon, and Côte d’Ivoire.

The situation in Rwanda is similar. As a landlocked country, Rwanda imports all its petroleum products, mainly from Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

These products dock at two Indian Ocean entry points—Mombasa and Dar es Salaam—before being transported by road to Kigali.

The UAE accounts for the largest share of Rwanda’s fuel imports (39.5 percent), followed by Saudi Arabia (15.9 percent), India (10.5 percent), and Switzerland (6.3 percent).

Jean Maurice Uwera, the deputy government spokesperson, cautioned citizens:“To avoid rationing measures by petrol stations and limits on litres consumed during this Middle East conflict, we need to reduce travel and save the fuel we have.”Last week, Rwanda increased petrol prices by 16 percent and diesel by 13 percent—the highest rise in years—partly due to global oil price trends.

However, Rwanda also announced measures to stabilise fuel prices, including stronger government control, smoothing mechanisms, and buffers. The regulator reviews fuel prices every two months, adjusting them according to global oil prices, exchange rates, and transport.

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