Roya International International, a hospitality consultancy based in Dubai, forecasts a 10% yearly increase in the number of visitors to the UAE in the next four years.
One of the drivers of visitors' numbers is the expansion of Dubai's airport, it argues.The recently announced AED 28.8 billion development program will boost capacity at Dubai International Airport to 90 million passengers per year by 2018 from the current 60 million.
The partnership between Australia's Qantas airline and Emirates should also provide a boost to tourism growth, Roya International points out, as travelers stop over for an average of four days in the UAE before continuing to their destinations.
With unrest in several competing destinations in the Middle East such as Egypt, the UAE's safe haven status is translating into further gains in visitor numbers.
In the first half of this year, more than 5.5 million tourists visited Dubai, an 11.1% year-on-year increase, according to Dubai's Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (DTCM).
Not only is the number of visitors up, the city witnessed an increase across all key indicators over the first six months of the year: hotel room occupancy rose 2.8% to 84.6% while room revenue jumped 17.8%. A remarkable achievement considering that the number of rooms on offer has also increased:16 new hotels have opened since June 2012.
HEAT FAILS TO DETER TOURISTS
Furthermore, against all odds - notably Ramadan and the unbearable heat- the month of June 2013 saw the third highest levels of hotel guests, after January and March, indicating Dubai is successfully positioning itself as a summer tourism destination.
"At the current pace, Dubai is not only set to achieve the 20 million tourist milestone sooner than projected, but the growth in tourism also energizes key sectors including retail, aviation and hospitality, thus driving the overall economy," said Mohamed Alabbar, chairman of the Dubai Events Council.
"Reaching out to new markets, led by increased airline connectivity and providing visitors even more rewarding lifestyle experiences, Dubai is fast establishing its credentials as one of the world's most visited destinations, as demonstrated by the tourist arrivals this year."
Most of the world's largest hotel chains already established in the UAE have further expansion plans to tap into the expected growth in visitor numbers.
Starwood Hotels, one of the world's leading hotel and leisure companies, owner of a flurry of internationally renowned brands such as Le Mridien, Sheraton and Westin, expects portfolio growth of over 60% in the UAE with 12 new hotels in the pipeline.
"Our hotels in Dubai continue to perform extremely well. In the first quarter of the year, our occupancy levels were close to 90% and RevPAR (revenue per room) increased 12% over the same period in the previous year - and the full first half has continued on this upward trajectory. We see huge growth for Dubai and, as a result, it is the company's second largest hotel market behind only New York City," said Guido de Wilde, regional director of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Middle East.
The UAE is so important to the US group's future that during the first half of this year, senior management, including CEO Frits van Paasschen, left the group's Connecticut headquarters to relocate to Dubai for a month.
BOUTIQUE HOTEL POTENTIAL
If large luxury hotels are what has put Dubai on international visitors' radars, Daniel During, founder and managing director of Dubai-based hospitality consultancy Thomas Klein International, believes there is potential to develop smaller size establishments to cater for a demographic he believes is not addressed in Dubai: the young, affluent and tech-savvy segment.
"There is a huge gap in the local market for the individually owned, individually managed hotel as well as for high-end chains of small, personalized 80-100 room boutique hotels," he said.
If Dubai is getting a lot of the hoteliers' attention, neighboring emirateswill benefit from its overflow.
Abu Dhabi should also reap the rewards of Etihad's increased flights and new routes as well as events backed by the Abu Dhabi Tourism & Culture Authority such as conferences, F1 racing and concerts, Roya International notes.
The consultancy believes there is further upside to current forecasts if the UAE hosts the 2020 World Expo due to an expected spike in interest from business visitors such as investors and job seekers.
On the other hand, demand could falter should there be a global slowdown orif the UAE becomes a victim of its own success.
"While an increase in ranking will place the UAE among the top world destinations, this has an effect on the UAE's affordability as a destination both for tourists and residents, which may, in the long run, deter budget-wary travelers," Roya International warns.
Zawya 2013
