Poland's centre-right and left-wing parties combined could win more seats in parliament than a potential coalition of the ruling nationalists Law and Justice (PiS) and the far-right Confederation party, according to a poll published on Monday.
In power since 2015, PiS look set to remain the largest party after the Oct. 15 vote, but it is unclear whether they will be able to secure a majority in an election dominated by issues like the cost of living, security and democratic standards.
This puts Confederation into the role of potential kingmakers. Analysts say the party has tapped growing anger, particularly among the young about what they see as high taxes and the dire state of the economy.
According to the IBRiS poll for Rzeczpospolita daily carried out Sept. 8-9, PiS can count on the support of 33.2% of voters, while the largest opposition grouping, the liberal Civic Coalition (KO), would get 26%.
However, in contrast to many recent polls, Confederation are not in third place - according to the survey the far-right party would come fifth with a score of 9.4%, narrowly behind the centre-right Third Way on 10.3% and New Left on 10.1%.
"The fact that support for Confederation falls and New Left and Third Way maintain and even slightly increase their support, has decisive significance," Jaroslaw Flis, a sociologist with the Jagiellonian University in Krakow, told Rzeczpospolita.
"It is clearly visible how much Confederation's result determines the possibility of getting a majority after the elections on Oct. 15." (Reporting by Alan Charlish; Editing by Hugh Lawson)