(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.)

NAPERVILLE, Illinois - Demand for U.S. corn and cattle has remained stout in recent months despite dwindling inventories, leading speculators to assume super-bullish stances in both.

In the week ended Jan. 21, money managers lifted their net long position in CBOT corn futures and options to 311,678 contracts from 292,228 a week earlier.

That marked their most bullish corn view since May 2022. Corn futures and options open interest surged 19% in the two weeks ended Jan. 21, reaching the highest levels since June 2021.

Speculators in the “other” category also made notable moves in the week ended Jan. 21, adding more than 21,000 gross corn longs to their net long position, the most for any week in nearly four years.

Money managers have held a CBOT corn net long exceeding 300,000 futures and options contracts in only 10% of the weeks since records began in mid-2006. Historical analyses suggest they are likely to remain bullish into at least late March.

However, their latest position could be the high print for now, as most-active futures eased slightly in the last three sessions. That included a 15-month high notched on Thursday.

CBOT March corn had been trading in technically overbought territory for about two weeks, though Friday’s trade was dragged down by Argentina’s unexpected export tax cuts, which could accelerate sales and shipments of Argentine corn, wheat, soybeans and soy products.

That news hit CBOT soybean meal futures particularly hard on Friday as Argentina is the top exporter. Money managers had slightly trimmed their large net short position in CBOT soymeal futures and options to 61,235 contracts through Jan. 21.

But they expanded their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 40,330 contracts from 34,833 a week earlier, establishing their friendliest soybean stance since November 2023.

Funds increased their net long in CBOT soybean oil futures and options through Jan. 21 to a two-month high of 24,214 contracts from 7,650 a week earlier, largely driven by short covering.

Despite reaching six-month highs on Thursday, CBOT soybeans slipped 1.1% over the last three sessions. Bean oil eased 1.2% and meal dropped 2% during the same period.

Money managers showed no signs of easing their hugely bearish bets across the wheat complex, including Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis flavors. Their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options, some 91,792 contracts as of Jan. 21, is little changed over the last six weeks.

CATTLE AND BEYOND

Speculators in the last couple days may have established a record net long position in CME live cattle as futures soared to all-time highs, topping 200 cents per pound for the first time ever. U.S. cash prices have been extremely strong with the combination of tight supplies and resilient consumer beef demand.

Money managers in the week ended Jan. 21 increased their net long in CME live cattle futures and options by just over 1,000 to 148,466 contracts. The all-time high was 154,550 contracts in April 2019.

Most-active CME April live cattle added another 3% in the following three sessions, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture may have added more fuel for the bulls after Friday’s close. The agency reported December placements of U.S. cattle in feedlots down 3% on the year, though analysts expected no change.

Frigid mid-January temperatures also added to the tightness in U.S. cattle supply, but the month is set to end on a much warmer-than-average note, which should offer relief. Some U.S. wheat areas may have also sustained damage from the extreme cold.

Parched farmland in Argentina is likely to finish January with precipitation at half of normal levels, but Sunday’s midday weather models showed chances that struggling corn and soy crops could enjoy better rainfall in early February.

Traders this week will also continue to monitor the strong pace of U.S. corn export sales and shipments, but Monday’s export inspection data could be disappointing as rare snow along the U.S. Gulf Coast likely slowed last week’s loadings. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

(Editing by David Gregorio)