(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)

ORLANDO, Florida - Chinese authorities last week pledged to prioritize domestic consumption in 2026, but these promises are already being met with skepticism that the massive fiscal support needed will actually be ‍forthcoming – even as more dour economic data ‍rolls in.

The world's second-largest economy could very well grow by roughly 5% next year, in line with the government's recent targets, but that will probably be thanks to ​booming exports and a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion - not domestic consumption.

At last week's Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), a key gathering of Communist Party leaders to set the 2026 policy agenda, officials said they will take action to ⁠spur spending and fight deflation. However, they also indicated that there will be no "aggressive" fiscal easing next year, with authorities prepared to rely on existing support and "incremental" measures, noted economists at Societe Generale.

"Our concern is that ⁠policymakers ‌are too complacent," SocGen economists wrote on Monday.

Barclays had a similar take. The bank's economists expect policy support next year to be "measured and reactive" rather than forceful and proactive. Authorities signaled this by dropping the word "unfavorable" from their description of the global environment, Barclays argued, and by committing to maintain only a "necessary" budget deficit.

Beijing is, therefore, likely to stick ⁠to an overall budget deficit target next year of around this year's record 4% of GDP. That's high for China, but likely to be insufficient. The International Monetary Fund last week said China will need to spend 5% of GDP to bring an end to the property crisis within three years – and that's before tackling other factors weighing on consumption.

HEADING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION

In some ways, Beijing's reluctance to slam on the fiscal accelerator is understandable. Authorities front-loaded stimulus this year - year-on-year fiscal spending growth rose to around 10% in July, the highest in nearly three years - ⁠so officials may wish to wait and see how that splurge ​plays out.

Yet the domestic consumption numbers aren't improving, they're worsening. Chinese business investment and retail sales in November were significantly weaker than expected, according to figures published on Monday.

Fixed asset investment is down 2.6% year-to-date and on track for the steepest ‍annual contraction on record, while persistently soft consumption and a seemingly endless slide in property prices threaten to cement a deflationary feedback loop next year, economists warn.

With every passing month of lackluster domestic activity, the need for bold stimulus – far more than measures taken earlier ​this year – becomes all the more pressing. And with Chinese bond yields hovering around their lowest levels on record, Beijing can borrow to help address this issue.

That makes the smoke signals from last week's CEWC all the more confusing.

EXTERNAL STRENGTH MASKS DOMESTIC FRAGILITY

The latest wave of sub-par economic figures and renewed gloom around China's domestic economy comes as its external performance goes from strength to strength, to the increasing irritation of global trading rivals frustrated with China dumping goods on their markets.

This year's Sino-U.S. trade war has caused a slump in the shipment of goods to the U.S., but China has more than made up for that by ramping up exports to Europe, Australia, and fast-growing countries in Southeast Asia.

China's total trade surplus is now more than $1 trillion, and some estimates put its manufactured goods surplus at $2 trillion. What's more, these surpluses are heavily concentrated at the high end of the value chain in sectors such as computers, cell phones, chips, electric batteries, and autos.

Channeling investment into these and other strategically important industries isn't doing much to stimulate domestic spending. Yet Beijing might be fine with this, as booming exports are offsetting domestic weakness while also expanding China's footprint in key global sectors.

The huge trade ⁠surplus is also helping lift the yuan to its highest level against the dollar in over a year, which Beijing can ‌point to when accused of keeping the exchange rate artificially low. Critics will argue, with reason, that the yuan is still significantly undervalued given the size of the surplus, but the nominal exchange rate affords Beijing some breathing room with the U.S. and other trade rivals.

The latest economic indicators suggest Beijing has less breathing room at home, however. Bigger and bolder fiscal steps would give it some, but authorities seem ‌reluctant to take them.

(The ⁠opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)

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(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Marguerita Choy)