In the wake of frequent claims of an emerging economic recovery, Pakistan's future remains dependent on its ability to kick in stability across a number of sectors, all relevant to security affairs.
Ultimately, the choice to attract large new investments must remain tied to a range of issues, not necessarily economic per se, but significant in setting the pace for the economy's outlook. The pressure to step up reforms along a series of non-economic but nevertheless significant issues for the economy comes at a time when Pakistan's broad economic indicators are at their best in several years.
The liquid foreign currency reserves of almost $10.5 billion or equivalent to pay for about 11 months of imports are the highest ever witnessed, as are remittances from expatriate Pakistanis worldwide, not forgetting exports which are up more than 20 per cent in the past year.
But the unresolved issues related to Pakistan's internal security promise to keep on unleashing periodic bouts of uncertainty leading to recurring setbacks, just as the country tries to gain from its newly emerging set of economic opportunities.
In a nutshell, the mere improvement in key macro-economic indicators would be insufficient for tackling the economic challenges unless a wide range of affairs related to security issues are tackled. In dealing with such challenges, a number of fresh actions on at least five fronts are necessary to begin setting the pace for a sustained long term recovery:
First, Pakistan's police and paramilitary forces otherwise notorious for corruption and inefficiency, hardly provide confidence to the public of their ability to tackle worsening lawlessness. In recent years, Pakistan has found itself confronting increasingly sophisticated and more vicious groups of criminals, well trained and well versed in the art of using offensive weapons.
Pakistan may have boldly faced up to the campaign a militant group such as Al Qaida, but its ability to be seen as equipped with the necessary means for protecting its citizens remains weak and behind fast changing times.
A comprehensive effort to revitalise Pakistan's security apparatus must include not only steps to dramatically lift the training of police and paramilitary forces as part of a wide ranging reform campaign, but also measures to revamp the existing force.
As part of a modernisation drive, a new police force would hardly serve much purpose unless its backed by a reformed court system, breaking taboos as those around the present judicial system where even simple disputes could take years to be settled.
Second, Pakistan's search for revitalising its security environment is bound to fail unless backed by a cross-section of political players, all committed to a fresh reform effort.
For years, Pakistan's successive governments have conveniently accepted the breakdown within the law enforcement forces. New governments, within days of taking charge, moved to order wide ranging transfers within the police force in an effort to appoint party loyalists to key positions. But as a consequence of such a breakdown, the performance of the police force remained constantly on the decline.
Pakistan in fact needs an in-depth discussion among its main political party leaders over ways of handling and managing the apparatus responsible for security affairs.
Within new commitments, one vital aspect must be the promise that leaders of new governments, inspired by a commitment to nation building would not interfere in matters related to the police.
Ultimately, a reformed police force which becomes free of political influence and more professional in dealing with security affairs would have a significantly improved chance of battling worsening lawlessness than the mechanisms in use today.
Third, as dealing with other vital challenges, Pakistan's ability to come to terms with its security challenge must rely on the extent to which the country can successfullyrevamp its structure of government and governance.
For years, the increasing lethargy across bureaucratic structures and the gradual erosion of the quality of governance has meant that the ability of successive governments in dealing with major challenges has eventually suffered.
Ultimately, Pakistan must come to terms with the notion that in sharp contrast to a bloated and lethargic government, a thin, lean and efficient government may be the essential first step towards undertaking a series of long overdue reforms.
Inefficient quality of government must mean that Pakistan's ability to undertake new reforms is bound to suffer right from the conceptual stage, where planning and organisation are essential features of a reform strategy.
For years, despite independent expert opinion urging a series of measures to drastically trim down the size of the bureaucratic empire, Pakistan has failed to act decisively in undertaking initiatives such as dismantling the number of ministries and other dysfunctional parts of the government, only to create new efficient restructures.
An all too large and somewhat unmanageable government with implications for security matters is an all too obvious outcome.
Fourth, as Pakistan deals with its security challenge as tied to its economic outlook, an assertive push to create new employment opportunities must be an essential feature of a reform strategy. However, for businesses to join the effort of creating new opportunities, there has to be a strong push by the government in facilitating the needs of the business community.
A litany of complaints from the business community demanding reforms such as fast track change in their dealings with the tax authorities, or aggressive restructuring of Pakistan's two large electricity supply companies to reduce otherwise galloping electricity tariff, must be taken seriously at top levels of government.
Eventually, the ability of businesses in responding to the official call for new investments and creation of employment opportunities must in part be dependent on the actions of the government itself.
Finally, the effect of all other reforms could easily come to naught unless Pakistan beginsaggressively reforming its social sectors to tackle rising poverty in parts of the country. For Pakistan, rising numbers of its impoverished population represents perhaps one of the greatest threats to internal security and future stability.
The size of Pakistan's impoverished population at over 40 million is larger than the entire population of many countries around the world. Its not surprising that in a country with such a large population of the poor, restive parts representing threats to internal security fail to become peaceful despite years of efforts by law enforcement authorities to tackle lawlessness.
Ultimately, all the macro improvements would not help to compensate for the inherent instability that comes with widening poverty. The scale of this challenge is such that perhaps Pakistan should consider declaring a national emergency in tackling poverty, bringing together all of its available resources.
Left untouched, Pakistan's community of poor represent almost a time-bomb ticking away. There should be no room for complacency just by the mere logic brought forward at times when analysts argue that as long as the streets remain calm of protests and angry exchanges, the challenge of tackling poverty can be handled systematically and over time. The trends underlying what could eventually become an explosive situation are all too glaring to be ignored.
The failure of Pakistan's poorest of the poor to agitate intensely perhaps comes more from their failure to rally behind one national leader to demand their rights. In a country where successive governments have let down the people and there's room for plenty of mistrust of politicians, there's ample room for frustration and inaction.
But just as the case of the impoverished creates an explosive underlying environment, so must be the increasing danger of a combination of unexpected events coming together to becoming an unwelcome lightening-rod for Pakistan's eventual instability.
The writer is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters. The writer can be contacted at fbokhari@gulfnews.com
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