The South African Rand stands at time of writing as the biggest loser amongst emerging markets currencies today (Wednesday, October 31) with losses of 1.56 percent, after South Africa’s latest balance of trade report unexpectedly showed slowing export growth.
The recently-announced trade balance data for September has essentially resumed selling pressure on the Rand. The market is not pleased with the news that export growth fell by 2.6 percent month-on-month, with the essential factor to consider that slowing export growth at a time where the domestic economy is in a technical recession is never a positive sign for any global economy.
Figures like this do suggest that external uncertainties, such as the prolonged trade tensions and warnings from respected institutions like the IMF that global growth has potentially “plateaued” is a problem for emerging markets in particular.
Overall, I wouldn’t read too much into a one-off data release, but investors would be mindful to monitor the upcoming economic releases from South Africa for validation behind why exactly the Finance Minister downgraded the South African economic growth outlook so sharply from 1.6 percent to 0.7 percent.
If further economic releases from South Africa provide an explanation to why the growth outlook for the country was sharply revised lower during the medium-term budget statement one week ago, it does risk weighing further selling momentum on the Rand.
One factor that is also not helping the Rand over the near-term is the news of the Dollar edging to further 2018 high’s at time of writing. Dollar strength remains as a major challenge to emerging markets.
Disclaimer: This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXTM Brand: ForexTime Limited is regulated by the CySEC (licence no. 185/12) and licensed by the SA FSCA with FSP number 46614. Forextime UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the FCA (licence no. 777911). FT Global Limited is regulated by IFSC (license no. IFSC/60/345/TS and IFSC/60/345/APM).
Any opinions expressed here are the author’s own.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. The content does not provide tax, legal or investment advice or opinion regarding the suitability, value or profitability of any particular security, portfolio or investment strategy. Read our full disclaimer policy here.
© Opinion 2018