16 September 2014
India is forecasted to be the UAE's top export and import destination by 2030, according the latest HSBC Trade Forecast. In addition to India, the fastest growing export markets for the UAE will be China, Malaysia, Turkey - each of which will see the fastest growth rates between 2017 and 2030. Asia and Turkey will also remain the most important trade partners in terms of imports. Import growth will be fastest for goods originating from China, India, Turkey and Vietnam.
Commenting on the report, Tim Evans, Regional Head of Global Trade and Receivables Finance said: "Sectors such as infrastructure and construction, tourism, retail and Government investments in technology will continue to be the main drivers of the UAE's economy going forward. With that said, we still expect petroleum products to remain both the largest category of total exports and the largest contributor to total export growth up to 2030. It will account for over 40% of total export growth over this forecast horizon. So it is no surprise to see energy hungry countries such as India and China on top of the UAE's export list.
"UAE importers will continue to have their main focus on Asia and intra-regional trade as well. It will be these markets that prove to be the fastest growing corridors for the country's long term import growth. We are already seeing this trend in the short term as the Trade Confidence Index reveals that 65% of businesses surveyed reported current trade activity with these regions while 75% believe that Asia or MENA will have the best opportunities of growth over the next 6 months.
"We very much appreciate that businesses still face hurdles when seeking to grow their cross border businesses such as availability of credit/liquidity and exchange rate volatility, and we continue to work closely with them to help address these - with the ultimate aim to fulfill their long term strategic ambitions and international growth needs."
According to the Trade Confidence Index, a survey of importers and traders from the SME segment and issued as part of the HSBC Trade Forecast report, the UAE remains firmly positive about increasing trade activity over the next six months. The country ranked third out of the 23 countries surveyed. 47% of respondents believe trading volumes will increase "slightly" over the next 6 months, and another 16% believe the increase in trade volumes will be "significant". An increase in demand - either globally or in key markets - is cited as the basis for this increase by around 45% of respondents.
Globally, world trade is set to resume its growth trajectory in 2016, presenting fresh opportunities for businesses that have positioned themselves to benefit. Exporters and importers in cyclical sectors, such as transport equipment and metals, will be the first beneficiaries as the pace of growth in cross-border commerce recovers to 8% in 2016 from just 2.5% last year. Looking out to 2030, the Forecast projects that global merchandise trade will more than triple as astute companies capitalise on increasing productivity and consumer wealth in the emerging markets.
Increasingly robust economic conditions in the US and the UK, along with a gradual rebound in the Eurozone, will give many international businesses a platform on which to build during 2015. By 2030, China is expected to increase its overseas shipments five-fold as it strengthens commercial ties to emerging Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. India, meanwhile, is likely to be the world's fastest-growing exporter from 2014 to 2030, and has the potential to move from the 14th largest exporter of goods by value to the world's 5th largest.
For further information please contact:
Regional Head of Communications
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited
Tel: 971 4 423 5237
About the HSBC Trade Forecast - Modelled by Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC's own analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods, and balances between 180 pairs of countries.
Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that ensures full consistency between all economies, in part driven by trade linkages. The forecasts take into account factors such as the rate of demand growth in the destination market and the exporter's competitiveness. Exports, imports and trade balances are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts for the periods 2014-16, 2017-20 and 2021-30. Sectors are classified according to the UN's Standard International Trade Classifications (SITC) and grouped into 30 sector headings. More information about the sector modeling can be found on www.globalconnections.hsbc.com/
HSBC Trade Confidence Index
The HSBC Trade Confidence Index is conducted by TNS on behalf of HSBC in a total of 23 markets, and is the largest trade confidence survey globally. The current survey comprises six- month views of 5,200 exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises on: trade volume, buyer and supplier risks, the need for trade finance, access to trade finance and the impact of foreign exchange on their businesses. The fieldwork for the current wave (11) was conducted between May - July 2014 and gauges sentiment and expectations on trade activity and business growth in the next six months.
HSBC Commercial Banking
For nearly 150 years we have been where the growth is, connecting customers to opportunities. Today, HSBC Commercial Banking serves businesses ranging from small enterprises to large multinationals in almost 60 developed and faster-growing markets around the world. Whether it is working capital, trade finance or payments and cash management solutions, we provide the tools and expertise that businesses need to thrive. With a network covering three quarters of global commerce, we make HSBC the world's leading international trade and business bank. For more information see www.hsbc.com/1/2/business-and-commercial
© Press Release 2014