Courtesy climate change, Pakistan has either been experiencing excess of water (floods) or lack of it (drought) for the last couple of decades. As in most other South Asian countries, monsoon rains in Pakistan between late June and August have traditionally helped life, in watering crops and in refilling rivers and ponds. Lack of these rains has meant a fall in harvests. But weather patterns in the region are becoming harder to predict, with rain falling in unusual amounts and locations and so, the warm, moisture-laden monsoon winds have been bringing about humanitarian disasters, more frequently recently than before, putting millions of lives and livelihoods at risk.

Almost 14 million people were affected by the torrential rains in Pakistan in 2010. These brought in an estimated flood volume of 48 million acre feet (MAF) - more than four times the combined capacity of all dams in the country. The super-flood caused by these rains killed 1,600 people, impinging on an area of 38,600 square kilometres. Most severely affected by the floods were small farmers; an estimated 5.4 million acres of crops were destroyed, along with an estimated 1.2 million head of livestock. The floods also damaged or destroyed more than 10,000 schools and 500 clinics and hospitals and swept away more than 8,000km of railways and roads. The Pakistani government estimated that economic losses from the floods totaled $43 billion. The UN rated the floods, which according to experts were driven by a 'supercharged jet stream', as the greatest humanitarian crisis in recent history.

Pakistan's Federal Flood Commission has earlier this month warned that the monsoon season could be extreme, with the incursion of Western System, higher than normal snowfall and other climatic changes in the country.

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has said that 49 districts across the country are at a serious risk. The National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive 2019 issued by the authority says the monsoon rains could also result in melting and calving of glaciers and increase in sea levels along with flash floods and landslides.

Extreme weather events are becoming the norm requiring the country to be prepared for them both in the short and the long term. A Thomson Reuters Foundation report has shown that efforts to prepare the country's mountain communities threatened by the collapse of glacial lakes paid off last week as a flood ravaged five villages in Chitral district but appeared to cost no lives. Such an example proves that communities vulnerable to floods need a cogent disaster risk reduction strategy that also expands local capacity in emergency response. A study has found that the communities that felt informed about their environment could cope with extreme weather better.

In the long run, a Third Pole report suggests, managing river systems by restoring the capacities of riverine corridors to pass bigger floods, rehabilitating lost wetlands to absorb flood peaks, and regenerating forests in floodplains to break flood velocities and complement aquifer recharge can help Pakistan manage floods, deal with droughts, and create engines for a green economy.

A better understanding of how human activities affect weather and climate, prediction and preparedness for managing the disasters can help save lives and reduce their impacts on people and economy of Pakistan. ­

Waqar Mustafa is a multimedia journalist and commentator based in Lahore, Pakistan

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