Monday, May 20, 2013
(FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL 5/20/13)
By Maria Abi-Habib
CAIRO -- Two ideologically opposed Egyptian political groups are banding together to check the ruling Muslim Brotherhood's growing power and challenge it in the coming parliamentary elections.
The unlikely alliance between Islamic fundamentalists and a loose coalition of secularists isn't about common principles -- they share few -- but rather a political calculation to dethrone the Brotherhood, whose popularity has waned amid Egypt's economic and political chaos, officials from both parties say.
The secular National Salvation Front and the Islamist Al Nour both accuse the Brotherhood of a naked power grab in the more than two years since former President Hosni Mubarak was ousted in a revolution.
The Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, which initially said it wouldn't even field a presidential candidate, went on to win the presidency, dominate the parliament and introduce legislation that could replace a quarter of Egypt's judges with Brotherhood appointees. This month, President Mohammed Morsi also revamped his cabinet, adding more Brotherhood allies to run crucial ministries.
Some believe the liberal-leaning Front could make some parliamentary gains in the election, set for the fall, if it resolves internal disputes over campaign strategy and leadership.
But most political leaders and observers expect the ultraconservative Salafists who dominate Al Nour and a handful of smaller parties to be the main beneficiaries of the Brotherhood's expected decline in legislative seats.
"The Salafists stand to gain. If elements of the secular opposition actually put time and money into their [campaign] infrastructure, they could make a dent," said Tamara Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.
To be sure, the Brotherhood has been counted out before. Its deep support and organizational skills are hard to overcome. Still, Al Nour hopes to siphon votes away from its less-loyal constituents, especially in conservative rural areas, and the Brotherhood admits it is up against the ropes.
"I know we'll suffer heavy losses in the elections," said Gehad Al Haddad, a Brotherhood spokesman. "But I don't see anyone else leading. Opposing President Morsi isn't a platform."
An ascendant Al Nour, which is known for its strict focus on Islamic law, would likely alarm liberal-leaning Egyptians as well as Western governments, which might find new hurdles to dealing with it on international matters.
For example, many party leaders' stance against usury -- forbidden in Islam -- could derail billions of dollars of loans Egypt is negotiating to get from Qatar and the International Monetary Fund. Salafists also frown upon the alcohol and scanty beach attire of Egypt's international tourists, a threat to the country's crucial tourism industry.
The leadership of Al Nour and the Front began closed-door meetings early this year, both sides say. The loose partnership gained traction in February when Mr. Morsi fired an Al Nour presidential adviser, Khalid Alim Al Din, on corruption charges, which prompted the resignation of another Al Nour presidential adviser. Al Nour denounced the Brotherhood for "monopolizing" power.
Al Nour and Front have recently been meeting more regularly, leaders say.
"The members of Al Nour and the National Salvation Front are taking the same stance: We don't want the Muslim Brotherhood to control everything," said Hamdeen Sabahi, a prominent secular leader who came third in the 2012 presidential elections.
Mr. Sabahi, like officials from Salafist parties, laments the rising "Ikhwanization" of the country -- a catchphrase for the growing sway of the Brotherhood, or 'Ikhwan' in Arabic.
Al Nour's secretary-general, Galal al-Mora, wouldn't specifically comment on his party's ties with the Front, but said Al Nour has begun "an initiative to close the gap between political parties and solve the current crisis."
Leaders of both Al Nour and the Front say the two could form a coalition government that could potentially put the Brotherhood into the opposition.
Short of that outcome, one consequence of an ascendant opposition could be to deny the Brotherhood the authority to pick Egypt's next prime minister, since the parliament is set to have that power for the first time.
"[If] National Salvation Front and Nour participate in elections and do well, they have the potential to have a majority or super majority in parliament," said Issandr El Amrani, an independent expert on Egypt who blogs at Arabist.net. "This would be unknown territory in Egypt: the president from one party and the prime minister from another."
Fleeting alliances in postrevolution Egypt aren't new. Some of the same liberal activists who galvanized the 2011 revolution called for a military coup during violent protests in Port Said this year.
Other Salafist parties have criticized Al Nour for its outreach. Hazem Salah Abou Ismail, the head of the Salafi Raya party, told a Cairo TV channel, "In terms of religious ideology, we are all the same, but when they [Al Nour] ally with NSF [the Front], this is very dangerous"
Al Nour stunned Egypt during parliamentary elections in 2011 and 2012 when it won more than 25% of the vote. The strong performance forced the Brotherhood -- with about 40% of votes -- to reach out to the ultraconservative Islamists to form a government. The Front was fourth with 8.9%.
But Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court annulled the vote and deemed it unconstitutional, ruling that a new election must be held this year.
Asked whether the Front's gamble on an alliance with the Salafists will pay off, Mr. Sabahi admits he is worried.
But "if we let this dictatorship go on, it will become worse," Mr. Sabahi said.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
20-05-13 0346GMT
