The 5-Star Movement was meant to be the new way of doing politics in Italy. After a phenomenal performance in the general election in February and March, the 5-Star Movement, led by comedian Beppe Grillo, could not repeat this in local polls, failing to make the second round run-off for any of the mayoral races in the major Italian towns.
This is hardly a laughing matter for Grillo, who has campaigned on an anti-establishment platform, and many are now asking if the 5-Star Movement's bubble is bursting. So what does this blow tell us about anti-establishment parties and do they have a future in politics not just in Italy but in parts of the Middle East where the status quo is also being challenged?
There are a couple of reasons why Grillo's party may have performed poorly in these latest elections: firstly turnout was low. Whereas in the general election turnout was extremely high -- over 80% -- it sank to a little over 50% last weekend. The second reason was that many of the 5-Star candidates were relatively unknown in local areas; after all, the Movement only had two months to prepare for these elections. Thus, it may be too early to write off the 5-Star Movement purely on the back of this defeat.
However, some argue that the local election result is a big vote of confidence in the fragile coalition government that is run by center-left Prime Minister Enrico Letta. Some argue that the Italians want stability, and that is why they are shunning the 5-Star Movement and its unconventional ways. Ultimately, the general election was a way to express displeasure and get the traditional parties to change and reform. The 5-Star Movement may have been used as a protest vote rather than a desire for a completely new type of politics in Italy.
This has lessons for parts of the Middle East that still find themselves in the shadow of 2010's Arab Spring. Back then, protestors gathered in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, to name just a few countries, to try and force political change. This worked. Former dictators were deposed in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, and although things are far from perfect in any of these countries, stability is valued. People can see what is going on in Syria: bloodshed, shelling, destruction and conflict, which have utterly disrupted any normal way of life and caused millions of refugees to cross the borders into Jordan and Turkey. They don't want the same to happen on their own doorsteps.
Fighting for change is not a pleasant option, and while there have been some flare-ups of violence and protest since the Arab Spring, in Egypt, for example, overall the situation has been calm as people have got used to new rulers, who have, by and large, been fairly moderate in their actions so far.
However, the spirit of change, of true modernity, need not disappear. Like in the 5-Star Movement, grass roots matter. Italian councilors and other local politicians that are part of the Movement have worked hard to cut Italian politicians' salaries and ensure that small businesses get a larger share of local government funds. These are all important reforms that the Italian public desperately wants.
The 5-Star Movement needs to keep this up and continue to hold the ruling politicians to account if they slip up on their pledges to reform. Added to that, if the 5-Star Movement wants to increase its footprint in Italian politics, its candidates need to be more widely known. Although it may go against the ethos of the movement, it needs to create a political machine that can promote candidates in the lead-up to these elections. The 5-Star Movement is still very young and it has plenty of time to improve, but the sooner it does so the more affective it may be.
Likewise in the Middle East, the protest spirit is important for the future of countries like Egypt. The protest movement in Tahrir Square needs to formalize into a political voice that is moderate and not violent. The people of the Middle East do not want violence; after all, economic prosperity and jobs are only created when there is stability.
To conclude, be it Italy or the Middle East, the much-needed protest spirit has more room to exercise change within the current power structures in their respective countries than outside them.
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