* For poll data see
* GDP seen growing by 2.7 pct in year to June 30
* Budget deficit forecast at 10.6 pct of GDP for 2012/13
* Inflation seen high at 8.6 pct for 2012/13
By Patrick Werr
CAIRO, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Egypt's economy is unlikely to grow as quickly as the government has forecast for this financial year, economists polled by Reuters predicted, dampening hopes Egyptians will see quick benefits after an uprising driven partly by economic grievances.
In its budget for the fiscal year that began on July 1, the government predicted gross domestic product (GDP) would grow by 4 to 4.5 percent in 2012/13, a forecast that ministers have regularly reaffirmed in recent weeks.
"I think it's a bit optimistic for the coming year. If there is austerity in Egypt, the government will have very little power to stimulate the economy," said Said Hirsh, an economist with Capital Economics.
Ten economists who contributed to a Reuters survey conducted Sept. 11-24 expected the economy to grow by only 2.7 percent in the fiscal year to June 30, 2013, with the rate accelerating to 4.0 percent for the year to end-June 2014.
In several years before the popular uprising ousted Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, Egypt's economic growth was around 7 percent, which was barely enough to produce work for the large number of Egyptian youth entering the job market.
Growth has shrunk to an anaemic 2 percent since the uprising, and Egypt's government has been on a charm offensive over the past few weeks to lure investors and aid from foreign governments to restart the economy. So far it has attracted billions of dollars in commitments.
Egypt's prime minister has told investors he is working on measures to make Egypt more attractive.
The new government is putting the final touches on an economic reform programme it hopes will satisfy the IMF it is serious about getting a persistently high budget deficit under control, paving the way for a $4.8 billion financing package.
The finance ministry on Sept. 11 revised last year's budget deficit figure upwards to 11 percent of GDP, saying spending was swollen by rising wage demands and revenue was trimmed by a fall in tax receipts.
The reform programme includes cutting government costs by directing energy subsidies to those who need them most. The reduction in these subsidies, which make up about a quarter of total government spending, is likely to boost inflation by raising prices of cooking gas, gasoline and diesel.
The economists in the poll on average forecast a budget deficit of 10.6 percent of GDP for this year and 9.5 percent for 2013/14.
They forecast inflation would average 8.6 percent this fiscal year and an even higher 8.9 percent in 2013/14.
By comparison, Egypt's urban consumer price inflation in the 12 months to August was 6.5 percent, near its lowest level in six years.
The economists predicted a negative current account balance of 2.9 percent of GDP in 2012/13 and a negative 2.4 percent in 2013/14.
(For a poll on Gulf economies see
(Polling by Sarmista Sen; editing by Jane Baird)
((patrick.werr@thomsonreuters.com)(+20-2-2578-3290)(Reuters Messaging: patrick.werr.thomsonreuters.com@thomsonreuters.net))
Keywords: ECONOMY EGYPT/POLL
