SECTARIAN violence has begun to raise its head in northern Lebanon. It is in part a spillover from across the border in Syria, but it also reflects a deeper struggle between Syria on one side and Saudi Arabia and the US on the other, for control of northern Lebanese supply routes, according to Stratfor.

These routes have become lifelines for the Syrian insurgency and as a consequence the Syrian regime is attempting to destabilize northern Syria to disrupt the supply routes and distract from conflict within its own borders. Meanwhile, the supply routes are crucial to the Saudi-US strategy of backing the Syrian rebellion by supplying weapons and money.

It is a dangerous game that threatens to create a surge in Salafist militancy which could "ignite the Levant region" and might also spark full-scale conflict across Lebanon. The first sectarian riot in northern Lebanon was on May 12, when plainclothes security officials detained a 27-year-old Sunni Islamist called Shadi Mawlawi and charged him with supporting regional al Qaeda forces.

This resulted in battles between residents from the Bab Tabbaneh neighborhood, which is mostly Sunni and opposes the Syrian regime, and those from the Jabal Mohsen neighborhood, which is mainly Alawite and supports the Syrian regime, in which rocket-propelled grenade, mortar and sniper fire was exchanged. There were further riots after Sunni cleric Ahmed Abdul-Wahid and his companion, Sheikh Mohammad Hussein al-Mereb, were killed at an army checkpoint in Kwaikhat, Akkar district on May 20, while traveling to a rally in the district capital of Halba organized by the Future Movement of former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri. According to a report by Stratfor into the northern Lebanese situation: "The common element in Mawlawi's arrest and Abdul-Wahid's shooting is that they both appear to have been instigated by Shiite-dominated agencies of the Lebanese military and security apparatus, in which Syria has long exercised a high degree of influence. Over the past several weeks, Shiite Lebanese authorities, in collusion with the Syrian regime, have arrested scores of Syrian activists operating in Lebanon.

"During the recent fighting, security elements involved in the operations - along with their Shiite and Alawite coreligionists in the neighborhoods - appeared prepared for a Sunni backlash. Sunni Lebanese officials already have voiced concern that the developments in northern Lebanon point to a Syrian agenda. The Syrian regime is likely trying to disrupt the vital northern Lebanese supply lines, which have helped sustain the Syrian insurgency."

The other side in the northern Lebanon conflict is Saudi Arabia and the US, along with regional allies such as Turkey and Qatar. Their aim is to topple the Syrian regime. This is part of a longer struggle against Iranian power in the Levant region.

"Unwilling to commit the resources of a conventional military intervention in Syria, Iran's regional adversaries have reportedly been funneling weapons and funds to the Syrian rebels in hopes that an upgrade of rebel fighting capabilities will cause the regime to crumble from within," according to Stratfor. "The US and Saudi abilities to control and protect supply routes in northern Lebanon are vital to this effort."

At the heart of this power struggle is Tripoli, a Phoenician-era port city on the eastern Mediterranean, which has been marginalized by the rise of Beirut. Like much of Lebanon, there is a combustible mixture of religion around Tripoli. Alawites live in the hills overlooking the city, which has a mostly Sunni population.

There is a real risk that Tripoli could become the centre of rising Islamic militancy in northern Lebanon. According to Stratfor: "The city's high poverty rate and large Sunni population have made it a breeding ground for Salafism, the more rigid version of Sunnism. Indeed, there are growing signs that Salafist fighters are dominating the Sunni militant scene in Tripoli with Saudi encouragement." In recent months armed Salafist groups have converged on Tripoli and called on Sunni Muslims in the military to defect and join their militias, claiming that the army is overrun by Shia and Christians.

Salafist groups in northern Lebanon receive the backing of Saudi Arabia. "The United States would prefer not to work through Salafist fighters in its campaign against the Syrian regime, but this is a battleground where Saudi money and experience hold significant weight," according to Stratfor. "And while Saudi Arabia likely understands that it is taking a risk by backing Salafists in its fight in Syria, Saudi royals are also working to prevent the domination of the Syrian rebellion by the Muslim Brotherhood." Saudi Arabia's policy of backing these groups has created a volatile arena, both in Syria and northern Lebanon, which is a breeding ground for jihadist elements.

According to Reva Bhalla, Stratfor's director of intelligence, "You can already see that for Saudi Arabia their main tool of choice for a campaign like this is going to be a combination of money and militants. They remember the backlash they experienced in other places and are trying to be selective about who goes to fight. But the big question is whether Saudi Arabia will be able to control that.

"We are already seeing more signs of a jihadist presence in Syria if you look at the modus operandi of the attacks and the groups that are popping up; it's taking on much more of a jihadist tone." According to the intelligence agency's report: "With time, Stratfor expects the insurgency in Syria to become more jihadist in nature. Indeed, the Al-Nusra Front, a jihadist group that has claimed responsibility for the majority of large improvised explosive device attacks against Syrian security and intelligence targets, is fast emerging as the premier jihadist group in the Syrian rebellion.

"Syria can be expected to use the increased presence of Salafists and jihadists in the rebellion to justify its crackdowns. Across the border in Lebanon, Syria will rely on its remaining allies to instigate sectarian clashes as a way of impeding Saudi and US efforts to fortify northern Lebanese supply routes." Armed factions of all ethnic and religious groups across Lebanon are also fearing the worst and preparing for war. It takes very little to spark armed conflict in Lebanon where "everyone is armed to the teeth," according to Bhalla. Armed groups there do not want to fight, but they are "hunkering down" and "definitely preparing for it if it comes to that."

"If you start to see more of a desperate situation in Syria then I think that [conflict across Lebanon] is something to watch out for because you are going to have Iran and Syria try to rely even more heavily on their proxies in Lebanon to defend their interests and you are going to have that natural sectarian spillover between these groups," says Bhalla. "You have got minority groups caught in the middle of this - they are not fans of the Assad regime, but they are scared of having a Sunni majority regime in power in Syria or Lebanon."

 

© MENA Fund Review 2012