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GCC oil income to peak at $608bn in 2011

By Nadim Kawach

Surge is due to a sharp rise in oil prices and production
A sharp increase in oil prices will ally with higher crude output to boost the collective income of Gulf hydrocarbon producers to a record high of nearly $608 billion in 2011, according to a semi official study.

The income this year will be nearly 30.7 per cent above the oil export revenue of nearly $465 billion earned by the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 2010, showed the study by the government-run Emirates Industrial Bank ( EIB ).

The increase will be a result of higher prices, with Dubai's crude price averaging at as high as $101 in the first 10 months of 2011, nearly 34.6 per cent above the $75 average price in the same period of 2010, EIB said.

"This large increase in crude prices together with a rise in production to nearly 16.5 million barrels per day, will likely push up the GCC's crude export earnings to a record $608 billion in 2011 compared with $465 billion in 2010."

EIB said Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter, has boosted oil supplies to one of its highest levels of around 9.8 million bpd over the past few months to make up for crude disruption in conflict-hit Libya.

It gave no figures for supplies in other GCC members but industry sources estimated the group's total production in 2010 at 15.2 million bpd.

The bulk of the GCC's oil output increase this year was in Saudi Arabia, which controls over a fifth of the world's proven crude reserves. In 2010, the Kingdom pumped around 8.2 million bpd and output could average 9.2 mbpd this year.

GCC countries, which also include the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and non-OPEC Bahrain and Oman, earned a record $460 billion from oil exports in 2008 when prices hit an all time high of $95. Prices are projected to average at a new record of more than $100 this year while the GCC's production will also be higher.

OPEC's statistics showed Saudi Arabia earned nearly $196 billion in 2010 compared with around $167 billion in 2009. The UAE's income surged to $74 billion last year from $57.5 billion while that of Kuwait and Qatar swelled to $61.6 billion and $29.2 billion from $46.6 billion and $19.1 billion respectively.

"Despite the global crisis, GCC countries will record good growth rates in 2011 thanks to the surge in their income and the fact that their exposure to European banks and other institutions is minimal," EIB said.

Projections by a key western financial firm showed high oil revenue could expand the GCC's combined GDP by a whopping $305 billion in current prices this year.

From around $1,075 billion in 2010, the GCC's nominal GDP is expected to climb to nearly $1,380 billion in 2011, its highest ever level and far above the previous peak GDP of $1,138 billion in 2008, the Washington-based Institute for International Finance (IIF) said in a recent study.

A breakdown showed the GCC's oil sector is projected to swell to nearly $738 billion this year from $494 billion in 2010 while the non-hydrocarbon sector could expand to $642 billion from around $581 billion.

Strong crude prices are also expected to sharply widen the GCC's current account surplus this year and allow members to bolster their foreign assets.

From around $119.3 billion in 2010, the balance is forecast to grow to around $133.9 billion in 2011 but will remain below the record surplus of $355 billion in 2008, according to IIF, which groups more than 450 world banks.

© Emirates 24|7 2011

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